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Predictions › Serie A › AC Milan vs Lecce
Serie ASun 20 Sept, 18:45 UTC

AC Milan vs Lecce prediction

San Siro

AC MilanHome
1.80 : 0.77
expected goals
LecceAway
61%Milan
24%Draw
15%Lecce
Eagle safe pickAC Milan or Draw
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Lecce is AC Milan to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is AC Milan or Draw at 1.18.

Prediction
AC Milan to win
Chance
61%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
AC Milan 1.8, Lecce 0.8
Best bet
AC Milan or Draw at 1.18
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

AC Milan or Draw
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AC Milan to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price 2.811 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AC Milan 61%, the draw 24% and Lecce 15%. The bookmakers agree and make AC Milan the favourite at 1.31.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AC Milan took 10 points from their last 5 games and Lecce took 9 from 5. AC Milan come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AC Milan won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Lecce won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AC Milan score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.1. Lecce score 0.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of AC Milan games and 8 of Lecce games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, AC Milan won 1 and Lecce won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended AC Milan 1, Lecce 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    AC Milan or Draw has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

AC Milan vs Lecce: AC Milan are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AC Milan host Lecce in the Serie A on Sun 20 Sept, 18:45 at San Siro. Our prediction for AC Milan vs Lecce is AC Milan to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is AC Milan or Draw at 1.18.

AC Milan form

AC Milan have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Lecce form

Lecce have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. AC Milan won 1, Lecce won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished AC Milan 1, Lecce 0.

Our call

We expect AC Milan to score about 1.8 goals and Lecce about 0.8. That points to AC Milan to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is AC Milan or Draw at 1.18. Our bold bet is AC Milan to win and Over 2.5 at 2.81.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MilanLecce
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws43
Losses710
Goals scored2417
Goals conceded2126
Scored per game1.20.8
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record3W 2D 4L3W 2D 4L
Away record6W 2D 3L4W 1D 6L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored45%35%
Over 2.5 goals40%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
AC Milan to win61%1.631.31-19.7%
A Draw24%4.194.60+9.8%
Lecce to win15%6.708.00+19.5%
Over 2.5 goals51%1.951.74-10.9%
Under 2.5 goals49%2.051.95-4.7%
AC Milan -1.544%2.281.91-16.2%
Lecce +1.556%1.781.71-3.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%2.11
Over 3.5 goals26%3.90
Both teams to score45%2.20
AC Milan or Draw85%1.18
Lecce or Draw39%2.58
AC Milan to win and Over 2.536%2.81
Lecce to win and Over 2.57%13.55
AC Milan clean sheet46%2.16
Lecce clean sheet17%6.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.2%
2-012.4%
1-111.3%
2-19.5%
0-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AC Milan vs Lecce?

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Lecce is AC Milan to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is AC Milan or Draw at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for AC Milan vs Lecce?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect AC Milan to score 1.8 goals and Lecce 0.8.

Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Lecce?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of AC Milan last 20 games and 7 of Lecce last 20.

How are AC Milan playing?

AC Milan have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Lecce playing?

Lecce have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when AC Milan and Lecce last met?

It ended AC Milan 1, Lecce 0. In the last 1 meeting AC Milan won 1 and Lecce won 0.

What is the best bet for AC Milan vs Lecce?

AC Milan or Draw at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.