Predictions › Primeira Liga › Académico de Viseu vs Vitória de Guimaraes

Primeira LigaSat 12 Sept, 19:30 UTC

Académico de Viseu vs Vitória de Guimaraes prediction

Estádio do Fontelo

Académico de ViseuHome

1.05 : 1.43

expected goals

Vitória de GuimaraesAway

27%Académico

28%Draw

45%Vitória

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Académico de Viseu vs Vitória de Guimaraes is Vitória de Guimaraes to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Vitória de Guimaraes to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Académico de Viseu 1.1, Vitória de Guimaraes 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Académico de Viseu to win

27% chancePrice 3.701 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Académico de Viseu 27%, the draw 28% and Vitória de Guimaraes 45%. The bookmakers agree and make Vitória de Guimaraes the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
Académico de Viseu took 5 points from their last 5 games and Vitória de Guimaraes took 4 from 5. Académico de Viseu come in with the better run.
3
Goals
Académico de Viseu score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.6. Vitória de Guimaraes score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Académico de Viseu games and 8 of Vitória de Guimaraes games in that run.
4
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Académico de Viseu vs Vitória de Guimaraes: Vitória de Guimaraes are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Académico de Viseu host Vitória de Guimaraes in the Primeira Liga on Sat 12 Sept, 19:30 at Estádio do Fontelo. Our prediction for Académico de Viseu vs Vitória de Guimaraes is Vitória de Guimaraes to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Académico de Viseu form

Académico de Viseu have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 games, with 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 2. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Vitória de Guimaraes form

Vitória de Guimaraes have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Académico de Viseu to score about 1.1 goals and Vitória de Guimaraes about 1.4. That points to Vitória de Guimaraes to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Académico de Viseu to win at 3.70.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Académico	Vitória
Games played	5	20
Wins	1	6
Draws	2	3
Losses	2	11
Goals scored	5	22
Goals conceded	8	29
Scored per game	1.0	1.1
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	0W 0D 2L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	1W 2D 0L	1W 1D 8L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Académico de Viseu to win	27%	3.72	3.70	-0.5%
A Draw	28%	3.56	3.35	-6.0%
Vitória de Guimaraes to win	45%	2.22	2.05	-7.6%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.20	2.05	-7.0%
Under 2.5 goals	55%	1.83	1.71	-6.4%
Académico de Viseu +0.5	53%	1.87	1.74	-6.9%
Vitória de Guimaraes -0.5	47%	2.15	1.95	-9.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.40
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.22
Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.21
Both teams to score	50%	2.00
Académico de Viseu or Draw	55%	1.82
Vitória de Guimaraes or Draw	73%	1.37
Académico de Viseu to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.03
Vitória de Guimaraes to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.97
Académico de Viseu clean sheet	24%	4.17
Vitória de Guimaraes clean sheet	35%	2.85

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

0-111.3%

0-09.2%

1-29.0%

0-28.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Académico de Viseu vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Our prediction for Académico de Viseu vs Vitória de Guimaraes is Vitória de Guimaraes to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Académico de Viseu vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Académico de Viseu to score 1.1 goals and Vitória de Guimaraes 1.4.

Will both teams score in Académico de Viseu vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 2 of Académico de Viseu last 5 games and 8 of Vitória de Guimaraes last 20.

How are Académico de Viseu playing?

How are Vitória de Guimaraes playing?

What is the best bet for Académico de Viseu vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.