Predictions › United Kingdom › AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Premier LeagueSun 20 Sept, 14:00 United Kingdom time

AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction

Vitality Stadium

AFC BournemouthHome

1.45 : 1.68

expected goals

LiverpoolAway

33%Bournemouth

25%Draw

43%Liverpool

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1/5

Quick answer

Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool is Liverpool to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

Prediction: Liverpool to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.4, Liverpool 1.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1/5
Both teams to score: 63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1/52 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AFC Bournemouth to win

33% chancePrice 11/5+4.6% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AFC Bournemouth 33%, the draw 25% and Liverpool 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Liverpool the favourite at Evens.
2
Recent form
AFC Bournemouth took 6 points from their last 5 games and Liverpool took 9 from 5. Liverpool come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AFC Bournemouth won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Liverpool won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AFC Bournemouth score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.9. Liverpool score 1.7 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of AFC Bournemouth games and 11 of Liverpool games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, AFC Bournemouth won 1 and Liverpool won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended AFC Bournemouth 3, Liverpool 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Liverpool shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AFC Bournemouth host Liverpool in the Premier League on Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 at Vitality Stadium. Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool is Liverpool to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

AFC Bournemouth form

AFC Bournemouth have 8 wins, 11 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 7 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Liverpool form

Liverpool have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. AFC Bournemouth won 1, Liverpool won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished AFC Bournemouth 3, Liverpool 2.

Our call

We expect AFC Bournemouth to score about 1.4 goals and Liverpool about 1.7. That points to Liverpool to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5. Our bold bet is AFC Bournemouth to win at 11/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bournemouth	Liverpool
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	8
Draws	11	5
Losses	1	7
Goals scored	31	34
Goals conceded	18	28
Scored per game	1.6	1.7
Conceded per game	0.9	1.4
Home record	3W 7D 0L	5W 4D 1L
Away record	5W 4D 1L	3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	35%	20%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AFC Bournemouth to win	33%	2/1	11/5	+4.6%
A Draw	25%	3/1	11/4	-4.5%
Liverpool to win	42%	11/8	Evens	-15.0%
Over 3.5 goals	42%	11/8	11/10	-10.8%
Under 3.5 goals	58%	8/11	4/6	-4.1%
AFC Bournemouth +0.5	54%	5/6	8/11	-7.2%
Liverpool -0.5	46%	6/5	10/11	-12.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1/5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	4/6
Over 3.5 goals	38%	8/5
Both teams to score	63%	4/7
AFC Bournemouth or Draw	58%	8/11
Liverpool or Draw	67%	1/2
AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5	22%	7/2
Liverpool to win and Over 2.5	30%	12/5
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet	19%	9/2
Liverpool clean sheet	23%	10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%

1-28.9%

2-17.7%

0-16.7%

2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool is Liverpool to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

What is the score prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect AFC Bournemouth to score 1.4 goals and Liverpool 1.7.

Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of AFC Bournemouth last 20 games and 13 of Liverpool last 20.

How are AFC Bournemouth playing?

How are Liverpool playing?

What happened when AFC Bournemouth and Liverpool last met?

It ended AFC Bournemouth 3, Liverpool 2. In the last 1 meeting AFC Bournemouth won 1 and Liverpool won 0.

What is the best bet for AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/5, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.