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Predictions › United Kingdom › AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers
League OneSat 12 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers prediction

The Cherry Red Records Stadium

AFC WimbledonHome
1.27 : 1.29
expected goals
Doncaster RoversAway
35%Wimbledon
28%Draw
37%Doncaster
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers is Doncaster Rovers to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Doncaster Rovers to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AFC Wimbledon 1.3, Doncaster Rovers 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
74% chanceFair price 1/31 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AFC Wimbledon 35%, the draw 28% and Doncaster Rovers 37%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make AFC Wimbledon the favourite at 8/5, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AFC Wimbledon took 7 points from their last 5 games and Doncaster Rovers took 3 from 5. AFC Wimbledon come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AFC Wimbledon won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Doncaster Rovers won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AFC Wimbledon score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.8. Doncaster Rovers score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of AFC Wimbledon games and 9 of Doncaster Rovers games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, AFC Wimbledon won 1 and Doncaster Rovers won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended AFC Wimbledon 0, Doncaster Rovers 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers: Doncaster Rovers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AFC Wimbledon host Doncaster Rovers in the League One on Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Our prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers is Doncaster Rovers to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

AFC Wimbledon form

AFC Wimbledon have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Doncaster Rovers form

Doncaster Rovers have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AFC Wimbledon won 1, Doncaster Rovers won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished AFC Wimbledon 0, Doncaster Rovers 1.

Our call

We expect AFC Wimbledon to score about 1.3 goals and Doncaster Rovers about 1.3. That points to Doncaster Rovers to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WimbledonDoncaster
Games played2020
Wins56
Draws37
Losses127
Goals scored1522
Goals conceded3526
Scored per game0.81.1
Conceded per game1.81.3
Home record3W 3D 5L3W 4D 4L
Away record2W 0D 7L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored30%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
AFC Wimbledon to win35%9/58/5-8.3%
A Draw28%13/55/2-2.9%
Doncaster Rovers to win37%7/48/5-4.9%
Over 2.5 goals48%11/1010/11-6.8%
Under 2.5 goals52%10/114/5-5.9%
AFC Wimbledon +0.563%8/131/2-6.9%
Doncaster Rovers -0.537%13/86/4-8.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%4/11
Over 2.5 goals47%11/10
Over 3.5 goals26%3/1
Both teams to score53%10/11
AFC Wimbledon or Draw63%4/7
Doncaster Rovers or Draw65%8/15
AFC Wimbledon to win and Over 2.520%4/1
Doncaster Rovers to win and Over 2.521%4/1
AFC Wimbledon clean sheet27%13/5
Doncaster Rovers clean sheet28%5/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
0-19.2%
1-09.0%
0-08.5%
1-28.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers?

Our prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers is Doncaster Rovers to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect AFC Wimbledon to score 1.3 goals and Doncaster Rovers 1.3.

Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of AFC Wimbledon last 20 games and 12 of Doncaster Rovers last 20.

How are AFC Wimbledon playing?

AFC Wimbledon have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Doncaster Rovers playing?

Doncaster Rovers have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

What happened when AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster Rovers last met?

It ended AFC Wimbledon 0, Doncaster Rovers 1. In the last 2 meetings AFC Wimbledon won 1 and Doncaster Rovers won 1.

What is the best bet for AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.