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Predictions › United Kingdom › AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons
League OneThu 17 Sept, 20:00 United Kingdom time

AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons prediction

The Cherry Red Records Stadium

AFC WimbledonHome
1.40 : 1.45
expected goals
Milton Keynes DonsAway
36%Wimbledon
26%Draw
38%MK Dons
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction
Milton Keynes Dons to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AFC Wimbledon 1.4, Milton Keynes Dons 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 2/72 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
12% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AFC Wimbledon 36%, the draw 26% and Milton Keynes Dons 38%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AFC Wimbledon took 7 points from their last 5 games and Milton Keynes Dons took 4 from 5. AFC Wimbledon come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AFC Wimbledon won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Milton Keynes Dons won 0 of their last 4 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AFC Wimbledon score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.8. Milton Keynes Dons score 1.3 and let in 2.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of AFC Wimbledon games and 4 of Milton Keynes Dons games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons: Milton Keynes Dons shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AFC Wimbledon host Milton Keynes Dons in the League One on Thu 17 Sept, 20:00 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Our prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

AFC Wimbledon form

AFC Wimbledon have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Milton Keynes Dons form

Milton Keynes Dons have 0 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 6 games, with 8 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect AFC Wimbledon to score about 1.4 goals and Milton Keynes Dons about 1.4. That points to Milton Keynes Dons to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WimbledonMK Dons
Games played206
Wins50
Draws34
Losses122
Goals scored158
Goals conceded3513
Scored per game0.81.3
Conceded per game1.82.2
Home record3W 3D 5L0W 2D 0L
Away record2W 0D 7L0W 2D 2L
Clean sheets25%17%
Both teams scored30%83%
Over 2.5 goals45%67%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%2/7
Over 2.5 goals54%5/6
Over 3.5 goals32%85/40
Both teams to score58%8/11
AFC Wimbledon or Draw62%8/13
Milton Keynes Dons or Draw64%4/7
AFC Wimbledon to win and Over 2.523%7/2
Milton Keynes Dons to win and Over 2.524%3/1
AFC Wimbledon clean sheet23%10/3
Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet25%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%
1-28.5%
2-18.2%
0-17.7%
1-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Our prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect AFC Wimbledon to score 1.4 goals and Milton Keynes Dons 1.4.

Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of AFC Wimbledon last 20 games and 5 of Milton Keynes Dons last 6.

How are AFC Wimbledon playing?

AFC Wimbledon have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Milton Keynes Dons playing?

Milton Keynes Dons have 0 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 6 games, with 8 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for AFC Wimbledon vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/7, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.