Predictions › Ligue 1 › AJ Auxerre vs Brest

Ligue 1Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 UTC

AJ Auxerre vs Brest prediction

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

AJ AuxerreHome

1.33 : 1.27

expected goals

BrestAway

37%Auxerre

28%Draw

35%Brest

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.35

Quick answer

Our prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Brest is AJ Auxerre to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.35.

Prediction: AJ Auxerre to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AJ Auxerre 1.3, Brest 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.35
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

74% chanceFair price 1.351 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AJ Auxerre to win

37% chancePrice 2.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AJ Auxerre 37%, the draw 28% and Brest 35%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Brest the favourite at 2.50, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
AJ Auxerre took 6 points from their last 5 games and Brest took 6 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
AJ Auxerre won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Brest won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
AJ Auxerre score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.4. Brest score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of AJ Auxerre games and 10 of Brest games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, AJ Auxerre won 1 and Brest won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended AJ Auxerre 3, Brest 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

AJ Auxerre vs Brest: AJ Auxerre shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AJ Auxerre host Brest in the Ligue 1 on Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps. Our prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Brest is AJ Auxerre to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.35.

AJ Auxerre form

AJ Auxerre have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Brest form

Brest have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AJ Auxerre won 1, Brest won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished AJ Auxerre 3, Brest 0.

Our call

We expect AJ Auxerre to score about 1.3 goals and Brest about 1.3. That points to AJ Auxerre to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.35. Our bold bet is AJ Auxerre to win at 2.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Auxerre	Brest
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	5
Draws	7	7
Losses	8	8
Goals scored	24	26
Goals conceded	28	33
Scored per game	1.2	1.3
Conceded per game	1.4	1.6
Home record	3W 3D 3L	3W 3D 3L
Away record	2W 4D 5L	2W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AJ Auxerre to win	37%	2.67	2.65	-0.8%
A Draw	28%	3.58	3.45	-3.7%
Brest to win	35%	2.89	2.50	-13.4%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.87	-8.3%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	1.96	1.83	-6.6%
AJ Auxerre +0.5	63%	1.60	1.48	-7.6%
Brest -0.5	37%	2.67	2.35	-12.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.08
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.80
Both teams to score	54%	1.87
AJ Auxerre or Draw	65%	1.53
Brest or Draw	63%	1.60
AJ Auxerre to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.60
Brest to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.02
AJ Auxerre clean sheet	28%	3.55
Brest clean sheet	27%	3.77

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

1-09.2%

0-18.7%

2-18.3%

0-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AJ Auxerre vs Brest?

Our prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Brest is AJ Auxerre to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.35.

What is the score prediction for AJ Auxerre vs Brest?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect AJ Auxerre to score 1.3 goals and Brest 1.3.

Will both teams score in AJ Auxerre vs Brest?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of AJ Auxerre last 20 games and 11 of Brest last 20.

How are AJ Auxerre playing?

How are Brest playing?

What happened when AJ Auxerre and Brest last met?

It ended AJ Auxerre 3, Brest 0. In the last 2 meetings AJ Auxerre won 1 and Brest won 1.

What is the best bet for AJ Auxerre vs Brest?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.35, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.