Predictions › Eredivisie › Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior

EredivisieSat 19 Sept, 18:00 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior prediction

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax AmsterdamHome

1.49 : 1.69

expected goals

ExcelsiorAway

33%Ajax

25%Draw

42%Excelsior

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior is Excelsior to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: Excelsior to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Ajax Amsterdam 1.5, Excelsior 1.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Excelsior to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Ajax Amsterdam 33%, the draw 25% and Excelsior 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Ajax Amsterdam took 8 points from their last 5 games and Excelsior took 10 from 5. Excelsior come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Ajax Amsterdam won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Excelsior won 5 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Ajax Amsterdam score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Excelsior score 1.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Ajax Amsterdam games and 14 of Excelsior games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Ajax Amsterdam won 0 and Excelsior won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Excelsior 2, Ajax Amsterdam 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior: Excelsior shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ajax Amsterdam host Excelsior in the Eredivisie on Sat 19 Sept, 18:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena. Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior is Excelsior to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Ajax Amsterdam form

Ajax Amsterdam have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Excelsior form

Excelsior have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Ajax Amsterdam won 0, Excelsior won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Excelsior 2, Ajax Amsterdam 2.

Our call

We expect Ajax Amsterdam to score about 1.5 goals and Excelsior about 1.7. That points to Excelsior to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Excelsior to win and Over 2.5 at 3.39.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Ajax	Excelsior
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	7
Draws	9	6
Losses	4	7
Goals scored	35	35
Goals conceded	21	26
Scored per game	1.8	1.8
Conceded per game	1.1	1.3
Home record	3W 4D 3L	2W 2D 5L
Away record	4W 5D 1L	5W 4D 2L
Clean sheets	40%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1.20
Over 2.5 goals	61%	1.63
Over 3.5 goals	39%	2.55
Both teams to score	64%	1.57
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw	58%	1.72
Excelsior or Draw	67%	1.50
Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.31
Excelsior to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.39
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet	19%	5.40
Excelsior clean sheet	23%	4.43

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%

1-28.8%

2-17.8%

2-26.6%

0-16.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior?

Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior is Excelsior to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Ajax Amsterdam to score 1.5 goals and Excelsior 1.7.

Will both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Ajax Amsterdam last 20 games and 13 of Excelsior last 20.

How are Ajax Amsterdam playing?

How are Excelsior playing?

What happened when Ajax Amsterdam and Excelsior last met?

It ended Excelsior 2, Ajax Amsterdam 2. In the last 2 meetings Ajax Amsterdam won 0 and Excelsior won 1.

What is the best bet for Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.