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Predictions › Eredivisie › Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II
EredivisieTue 15 Sept, 18:00 UTC

Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II prediction

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax AmsterdamHome
2.00 : 1.23
expected goals
Willem IIAway
55%Ajax
23%Draw
23%Willem II
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction
Ajax Amsterdam to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Ajax Amsterdam 2.0, Willem II 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 2.541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Ajax Amsterdam 55%, the draw 23% and Willem II 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Ajax Amsterdam took 8 points from their last 5 games and Willem II took 2 from 5. Ajax Amsterdam come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    Ajax Amsterdam score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Willem II score 1.0 and let in 2.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Ajax Amsterdam games and 4 of Willem II games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II: Ajax Amsterdam are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ajax Amsterdam host Willem II in the Eredivisie on Tue 15 Sept, 18:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena. Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Ajax Amsterdam form

Ajax Amsterdam have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Willem II form

Willem II have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 games, with 5 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 2. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Ajax Amsterdam to score about 2.0 goals and Willem II about 1.2. That points to Ajax Amsterdam to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5 at 2.54.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AjaxWillem II
Games played205
Wins70
Draws92
Losses43
Goals scored355
Goals conceded2114
Scored per game1.81.0
Conceded per game1.12.8
Home record3W 4D 3L0W 1D 2L
Away record4W 5D 1L0W 1D 1L
Clean sheets40%0%
Both teams scored60%80%
Over 2.5 goals55%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.19
Over 2.5 goals63%1.60
Over 3.5 goals40%2.47
Both teams to score62%1.62
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw77%1.29
Willem II or Draw45%2.20
Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.539%2.54
Willem II to win and Over 2.515%6.51
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet29%3.43
Willem II clean sheet14%7.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.3%
2-19.7%
2-07.9%
1-07.3%
3-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?

Our prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Ajax Amsterdam to score 2.0 goals and Willem II 1.2.

Will both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Ajax Amsterdam last 20 games and 4 of Willem II last 5.

How are Ajax Amsterdam playing?

Ajax Amsterdam have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Willem II playing?

Willem II have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 games, with 5 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 2. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.