Alabama Crimson Tide vs Kentucky Wildcats prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Alabama to win

76% chancePrice -3951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Kentucky Wildcats 24% and Alabama Crimson Tide 76%. The bookmakers agree and make Alabama Crimson Tide the favourite at -395.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Kentucky Wildcats won 3 of their last 5 and Alabama Crimson Tide won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Kentucky Wildcats won 4 of their last 6 games at home. Alabama Crimson Tide won 5 of their last 6 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Kentucky Wildcats score 24.9 points a game and let in 25.8. Alabama Crimson Tide score 28.6 and let in 19.1. Their recent games average 50.7 and 47.7 points in total, and the market line is 48.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Alabama to win has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 14 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Kentucky +3.5 wins if Kentucky win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.