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Predictions › Primeira Liga › Alverca vs Rio Ave
Primeira LigaSat 19 Sept, 17:00 UTC

Alverca vs Rio Ave prediction

Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

AlvercaHome
1.38 : 1.04
expected goals
Rio AveAway
44%Alverca
29%Draw
28%Rio Ave
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Alverca vs Rio Ave is Alverca to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Alverca to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Alverca 1.4, Rio Ave 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Alverca 44%, the draw 29% and Rio Ave 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Alverca took 2 points from their last 5 games and Rio Ave took 3 from 5. Rio Ave come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Alverca won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Rio Ave won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Alverca score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Rio Ave score 0.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Alverca games and 10 of Rio Ave games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Alverca won 1 and Rio Ave won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Rio Ave 1, Alverca 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Alverca vs Rio Ave: Alverca shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Alverca host Rio Ave in the Primeira Liga on Sat 19 Sept, 17:00 at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Our prediction for Alverca vs Rio Ave is Alverca to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Alverca form

Alverca have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Rio Ave form

Rio Ave have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Alverca won 1, Rio Ave won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Rio Ave 1, Alverca 2.

Our call

We expect Alverca to score about 1.4 goals and Rio Ave about 1.0. That points to Alverca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.39.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AlvercaRio Ave
Games played2020
Wins35
Draws94
Losses811
Goals scored2115
Goals conceded2933
Scored per game1.10.8
Conceded per game1.41.6
Home record2W 6D 2L1W 3D 6L
Away record1W 3D 6L4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets5%25%
Both teams scored75%35%
Over 2.5 goals45%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.42
Over 2.5 goals44%2.29
Over 3.5 goals23%4.42
Both teams to score49%2.03
Alverca or Draw72%1.38
Rio Ave or Draw56%1.78
Alverca to win and Over 2.524%4.19
Rio Ave to win and Over 2.514%6.97
Alverca clean sheet35%2.84
Rio Ave clean sheet25%3.97

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%
1-011.5%
0-09.6%
2-18.8%
0-18.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Alverca vs Rio Ave?

Our prediction for Alverca vs Rio Ave is Alverca to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Alverca vs Rio Ave?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Alverca to score 1.4 goals and Rio Ave 1.0.

Will both teams score in Alverca vs Rio Ave?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Alverca last 20 games and 7 of Rio Ave last 20.

How are Alverca playing?

Alverca have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Rio Ave playing?

Rio Ave have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Alverca and Rio Ave last met?

It ended Rio Ave 1, Alverca 2. In the last 2 meetings Alverca won 1 and Rio Ave won 0.

What is the best bet for Alverca vs Rio Ave?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.