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Predictions › Liga MX › América vs Guadalajara
Liga MXSun 20 Sept, 03:00 UTC

América vs Guadalajara prediction

Estadio Banorte

AméricaHome
1.50 : 1.15
expected goals
GuadalajaraAway
45%América
27%Draw
28%Guadalajara
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for América vs Guadalajara is América to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
América to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
América 1.5, Guadalajara 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

América to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.731 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives América 45%, the draw 27% and Guadalajara 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    América took 13 points from their last 5 games and Guadalajara took 11 from 5. América come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    América won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Guadalajara won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    América score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Guadalajara score 1.9 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of América games and 12 of Guadalajara games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, América won 0 and Guadalajara won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Guadalajara 1, América 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

América vs Guadalajara: América shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

América host Guadalajara in the Liga MX on Sun 20 Sept, 03:00 at Estadio Banorte. Our prediction for América vs Guadalajara is América to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

América form

América have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Guadalajara form

Guadalajara have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. América won 0, Guadalajara won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Guadalajara 1, América 0.

Our call

We expect América to score about 1.5 goals and Guadalajara about 1.1. That points to América to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is América to win and Over 2.5 at 3.73.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AméricaGuadalajara
Games played2020
Wins1010
Draws56
Losses54
Goals scored3539
Goals conceded2322
Scored per game1.81.9
Conceded per game1.11.1
Home record5W 2D 3L6W 2D 2L
Away record5W 3D 2L4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets30%45%
Both teams scored55%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.33
Over 2.5 goals50%2.02
Over 3.5 goals28%3.62
Both teams to score54%1.86
América or Draw72%1.40
Guadalajara or Draw55%1.81
América to win and Over 2.527%3.73
Guadalajara to win and Over 2.516%6.13
América clean sheet32%3.16
Guadalajara clean sheet22%4.50

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%
1-09.8%
2-19.1%
2-07.9%
0-07.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win América vs Guadalajara?

Our prediction for América vs Guadalajara is América to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for América vs Guadalajara?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect América to score 1.5 goals and Guadalajara 1.1.

Will both teams score in América vs Guadalajara?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of América last 20 games and 10 of Guadalajara last 20.

How are América playing?

América have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Guadalajara playing?

Guadalajara have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when América and Guadalajara last met?

It ended Guadalajara 1, América 0. In the last 2 meetings América won 0 and Guadalajara won 2.

What is the best bet for América vs Guadalajara?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.