Predictions › Ligue 1 › Angers vs Troyes

Ligue 1Sat 19 Sept, 18:45 UTC

Angers vs Troyes prediction

Stade Raymond Kopa

AngersHome

1.37 : 1.11

expected goals

TroyesAway

42%Angers

28%Draw

30%Troyes

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Angers vs Troyes is Angers to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Angers to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Angers 1.4, Troyes 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Angers 42%, the draw 28% and Troyes 30%. The bookmakers agree and make Angers the favourite at 2.20.
2
Recent form
Angers took 5 points from their last 5 games and Troyes took 4 from 3. Angers come in with the better run.
3
Goals
Angers score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Troyes score 1.3 and let in 2.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Angers games and 2 of Troyes games in that run.
4
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Angers vs Troyes: Angers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Angers host Troyes in the Ligue 1 on Sat 19 Sept, 18:45 at Stade Raymond Kopa. Our prediction for Angers vs Troyes is Angers to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Angers form

Angers have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Troyes form

Troyes have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 3 games, with 4 goals scored and 7 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses from 1. Their last 3 results read L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Angers to score about 1.4 goals and Troyes about 1.1. That points to Angers to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Angers	Troyes
Games played	20	3
Wins	4	1
Draws	5	1
Losses	11	1
Goals scored	15	4
Goals conceded	33	7
Scored per game	0.8	1.3
Conceded per game	1.6	2.3
Home record	2W 3D 6L	0W 1D 1L
Away record	2W 2D 5L	1W 0D 0L
Clean sheets	25%	33%
Both teams scored	45%	67%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	67%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Angers to win	42%	2.39	2.20	-7.9%
A Draw	28%	3.52	3.35	-4.8%
Troyes to win	30%	3.37	3.15	-6.4%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.22	2.05	-7.5%
Under 2.5 goals	55%	1.82	1.69	-7.3%
Angers -0.5	43%	2.31	2.05	-11.2%
Troyes +0.5	57%	1.76	1.61	-9.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.40
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.22
Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.21
Both teams to score	51%	1.97
Angers or Draw	70%	1.42
Troyes or Draw	58%	1.72
Angers to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.28
Troyes to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.26
Angers clean sheet	33%	3.04
Troyes clean sheet	26%	3.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%

1-010.7%

0-09.2%

2-18.7%

0-18.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Angers vs Troyes?

Our prediction for Angers vs Troyes is Angers to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Angers vs Troyes?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Angers to score 1.4 goals and Troyes 1.1.

Will both teams score in Angers vs Troyes?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Angers last 20 games and 2 of Troyes last 3.

How are Angers playing?

How are Troyes playing?

What is the best bet for Angers vs Troyes?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.