App State Mountaineers vs East Carolina Pirates prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

East Carolina to win

69% chancePrice -2651 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

App State to win

31% chancePrice +2151 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives East Carolina Pirates 69% and App State Mountaineers 31%. The bookmakers agree and make East Carolina Pirates the favourite at -265.

2. 2
   Recent form

   East Carolina Pirates won 3 of their last 5 and App State Mountaineers won 2 of their last 5. East Carolina Pirates come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   East Carolina Pirates won 5 of their last 6 games at home. App State Mountaineers won 1 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   East Carolina Pirates score 30.2 points a game and let in 23.5. App State Mountaineers score 26.3 and let in 30.5. Their recent games average 53.7 and 56.8 points in total, and the market line is 56.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   East Carolina to win has a 69% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. East Carolina +3.5 wins if East Carolina win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.