Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Cardinals +16.5

73% chanceFair price -2671 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Cardinals +9.5

54% chancePrice -105+4.5% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Los Angeles Chargers 78% and Arizona Cardinals 22%. The bookmakers agree and make Los Angeles Chargers the favourite at -500.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Los Angeles Chargers won 1 of their last 5 and Arizona Cardinals won 1 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Los Angeles Chargers won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Arizona Cardinals won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Los Angeles Chargers score 20.3 points a game and let in 20.1. Arizona Cardinals score 22.1 and let in 29.9. Their recent games average 40.5 and 52.0 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.

5. 5
   Where the value is

   Cardinals +9.5 is priced at -105. Our fair price is -115, so the bookmaker pays about 4.5% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Chargers +3.5 wins if Chargers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.