Arkansas State Red Wolves vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 61.5 points

74% chanceFair price -2881 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Arkansas St to win

33% chanceFair price +2031 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives TCU Horned Frogs 67% and Arkansas State Red Wolves 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   TCU Horned Frogs won 3 of their last 5 and Arkansas State Red Wolves won 2 of their last 5. TCU Horned Frogs come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   TCU Horned Frogs won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Arkansas State Red Wolves won 3 of their last 6 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   TCU Horned Frogs score 27.8 points a game and let in 25.4. Arkansas State Red Wolves score 24.6 and let in 26.5. Their recent games average 53.2 and 51.1 points in total.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Under 61.5 points has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 13 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. TCU +3.5 wins if TCU win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.