Predictions › Primeira Liga › Arouca vs Santa Clara

Primeira LigaSun 13 Sept, 17:00 UTC

Arouca vs Santa Clara prediction

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

AroucaHome

1.30 : 1.14

expected goals

Santa ClaraAway

40%Arouca

29%Draw

32%Santa Clara

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Arouca vs Santa Clara is Arouca to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Arouca to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Arouca 1.3, Santa Clara 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Arouca to win

40% chancePrice 2.60+2.9% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Arouca 40%, the draw 29% and Santa Clara 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Arouca the favourite at 2.60.
2
Recent form
Arouca took 10 points from their last 5 games and Santa Clara took 11 from 5. Santa Clara come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Arouca won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Santa Clara won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Arouca score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.1. Santa Clara score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Arouca games and 8 of Santa Clara games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Arouca won 0 and Santa Clara won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Arouca 2, Santa Clara 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Arouca vs Santa Clara: Arouca shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Arouca host Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga on Sun 13 Sept, 17:00 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Our prediction for Arouca vs Santa Clara is Arouca to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Arouca form

Arouca have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Santa Clara form

Santa Clara have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Arouca won 0, Santa Clara won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Arouca 2, Santa Clara 2.

Our call

We expect Arouca to score about 1.3 goals and Santa Clara about 1.1. That points to Arouca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Arouca to win at 2.60.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Arouca	Santa Clara
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	8
Draws	2	6
Losses	7	6
Goals scored	34	27
Goals conceded	23	23
Scored per game	1.7	1.4
Conceded per game	1.1	1.1
Home record	7W 1D 1L	6W 1D 3L
Away record	4W 1D 6L	2W 5D 3L
Clean sheets	35%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Arouca to win	40%	2.53	2.60	+2.9%
A Draw	29%	3.47	2.95	-15.0%
Santa Clara to win	32%	3.16	2.85	-9.9%
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.37	2.25	-5.1%
Under 2.5 goals	58%	1.73	1.59	-8.2%
Arouca -0.5	38%	2.63	2.45	-6.7%
Santa Clara +0.5	62%	1.61	1.47	-9.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.41
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.27
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.35
Both teams to score	50%	1.99
Arouca or Draw	68%	1.46
Santa Clara or Draw	60%	1.65
Arouca to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.63
Santa Clara to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.94
Arouca clean sheet	32%	3.12
Santa Clara clean sheet	27%	3.68

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%

1-010.6%

0-09.5%

0-19.1%

2-18.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Arouca vs Santa Clara?

Our prediction for Arouca vs Santa Clara is Arouca to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Arouca vs Santa Clara?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Arouca to score 1.3 goals and Santa Clara 1.1.

Will both teams score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Arouca last 20 games and 9 of Santa Clara last 20.

How are Arouca playing?

How are Santa Clara playing?

What happened when Arouca and Santa Clara last met?

It ended Arouca 2, Santa Clara 2. In the last 2 meetings Arouca won 0 and Santa Clara won 0.

What is the best bet for Arouca vs Santa Clara?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.