Predictions › Ligue 1 › AS Monaco vs Lens

Ligue 1Fri 18 Sept, 18:45 UTC

AS Monaco vs Lens prediction

Stade Louis II

AS MonacoHome

1.58 : 1.39

expected goals

LensAway

41%Monaco

26%Draw

33%Lens

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.59

Quick answer

Our prediction for AS Monaco vs Lens is AS Monaco to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.59.

Prediction: AS Monaco to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AS Monaco 1.6, Lens 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.59
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

60% chancePrice 1.591 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 3.631 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AS Monaco 41%, the draw 26% and Lens 33%. The bookmakers agree and make AS Monaco the favourite at 2.25.
2
Recent form
AS Monaco took 9 points from their last 5 games and Lens took 9 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
AS Monaco won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Lens won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AS Monaco score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Lens score 2.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of AS Monaco games and 14 of Lens games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, AS Monaco won 1 and Lens won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Lens 2, AS Monaco 3.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 60% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

AS Monaco vs Lens: AS Monaco shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AS Monaco host Lens in the Ligue 1 on Fri 18 Sept, 18:45 at Stade Louis II. Our prediction for AS Monaco vs Lens is AS Monaco to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.59.

AS Monaco form

AS Monaco have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Lens form

Lens have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AS Monaco won 1, Lens won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Lens 2, AS Monaco 3.

Our call

We expect AS Monaco to score about 1.6 goals and Lens about 1.4. That points to AS Monaco to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.59. Our bold bet is AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5 at 3.63.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Monaco	Lens
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	10
Draws	4	3
Losses	4	7
Goals scored	41	43
Goals conceded	27	29
Scored per game	2.0	2.1
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	6W 1D 2L	7W 0D 3L
Away record	6W 3D 2L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	65%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AS Monaco to win	41%	2.41	2.25	-6.8%
A Draw	26%	3.89	3.60	-7.6%
Lens to win	33%	3.04	2.85	-6.3%
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.52	2.20	-12.6%
Under 3.5 goals	60%	1.66	1.59	-4.3%
AS Monaco -0.5	43%	2.35	2.10	-10.6%
Lens +0.5	57%	1.74	1.59	-8.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.25
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.76
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.89
Both teams to score	60%	1.66
AS Monaco or Draw	67%	1.49
Lens or Draw	59%	1.71
AS Monaco to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.63
Lens to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.65
AS Monaco clean sheet	25%	4.00
Lens clean sheet	21%	4.86

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.0%

2-18.9%

1-27.8%

1-07.5%

0-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AS Monaco vs Lens?

Our prediction for AS Monaco vs Lens is AS Monaco to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.59.

What is the score prediction for AS Monaco vs Lens?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect AS Monaco to score 1.6 goals and Lens 1.4.

Will both teams score in AS Monaco vs Lens?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of AS Monaco last 20 games and 12 of Lens last 20.

How are AS Monaco playing?

How are Lens playing?

What happened when AS Monaco and Lens last met?

It ended Lens 2, AS Monaco 3. In the last 2 meetings AS Monaco won 1 and Lens won 1.

What is the best bet for AS Monaco vs Lens?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.59, with a 60% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.