Predictions › Serie A › AS Roma vs Internazionale

Serie ASat 19 Sept, 16:00 UTC

AS Roma vs Internazionale prediction

Olimpico

AS RomaHome

1.48 : 1.29

expected goals

InternazionaleAway

41%AS Roma

27%Draw

32%Inter Milan

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Internazionale is AS Roma to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: AS Roma to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AS Roma 1.5, Internazionale 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AS Roma to win

41% chancePrice 2.45+0.6% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AS Roma 41%, the draw 27% and Internazionale 32%. The bookmakers agree and make AS Roma the favourite at 2.45.
2
Recent form
AS Roma took 13 points from their last 5 games and Internazionale took 10 from 5. AS Roma come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AS Roma won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Internazionale won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AS Roma score 2.3 goals a game and let in 1.2. Internazionale score 2.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of AS Roma games and 12 of Internazionale games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, AS Roma won 0 and Internazionale won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Internazionale 5, AS Roma 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

AS Roma vs Internazionale: AS Roma shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AS Roma host Internazionale in the Serie A on Sat 19 Sept, 16:00 at Olimpico. Our prediction for AS Roma vs Internazionale is AS Roma to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

AS Roma form

AS Roma have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 45 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Internazionale form

Internazionale have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AS Roma won 0, Internazionale won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Internazionale 5, AS Roma 2.

Our call

We expect AS Roma to score about 1.5 goals and Internazionale about 1.3. That points to AS Roma to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is AS Roma to win at 2.45.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	AS Roma	Inter Milan
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	11
Draws	5	5
Losses	4	4
Goals scored	45	43
Goals conceded	24	26
Scored per game	2.3	2.1
Conceded per game	1.2	1.3
Home record	7W 2D 1L	7W 2D 1L
Away record	4W 3D 3L	4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	45%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AS Roma to win	41%	2.44	2.45	+0.6%
A Draw	27%	3.74	3.30	-11.7%
Internazionale to win	32%	3.11	2.65	-14.7%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.86	1.71	-7.8%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.16	2.05	-5.3%
AS Roma -0.5	40%	2.53	2.35	-7.0%
Internazionale +0.5	60%	1.66	1.50	-9.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	30%	3.33
Both teams to score	57%	1.77
AS Roma or Draw	68%	1.47
Internazionale or Draw	59%	1.70
AS Roma to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.91
Internazionale to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.09
AS Roma clean sheet	28%	3.62
Internazionale clean sheet	23%	4.40

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%

2-18.9%

1-08.6%

1-27.7%

0-17.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AS Roma vs Internazionale?

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Internazionale is AS Roma to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for AS Roma vs Internazionale?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect AS Roma to score 1.5 goals and Internazionale 1.3.

Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Internazionale?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of AS Roma last 20 games and 13 of Internazionale last 20.

How are AS Roma playing?

How are Internazionale playing?

What happened when AS Roma and Internazionale last met?

It ended Internazionale 5, AS Roma 2. In the last 2 meetings AS Roma won 0 and Internazionale won 2.

What is the best bet for AS Roma vs Internazionale?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.