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Predictions › LaLiga › Athletic Club vs Alavés
LaLigaSat 19 Sept, 14:15 UTC

Athletic Club vs Alavés prediction

San Mamés

Athletic ClubHome
1.39 : 1.19
expected goals
AlavésAway
41%Athletic
28%Draw
31%Alavés
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.35

Quick answer

Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Alavés is Athletic Club to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.35.

Prediction
Athletic Club to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Athletic Club 1.4, Alavés 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.35
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
74% chanceFair price 1.351 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Athletic Club 41%, the draw 28% and Alavés 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Athletic Club took 6 points from their last 5 games and Alavés took 10 from 5. Alavés come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Athletic Club won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Alavés won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Athletic Club score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Alavés score 1.7 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Athletic Club games and 11 of Alavés games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Athletic Club won 1 and Alavés won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Alavés 2, Athletic Club 4.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Athletic Club vs Alavés: Athletic Club shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Athletic Club host Alavés in the LaLiga on Sat 19 Sept, 14:15 at San Mamés. Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Alavés is Athletic Club to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.35.

Athletic Club form

Athletic Club have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Alavés form

Alavés have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Athletic Club won 1, Alavés won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Alavés 2, Athletic Club 4.

Our call

We expect Athletic Club to score about 1.4 goals and Alavés about 1.2. That points to Athletic Club to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.35. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.54.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AthleticAlavés
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws27
Losses106
Goals scored2834
Goals conceded3232
Scored per game1.41.7
Conceded per game1.61.6
Home record5W 1D 4L5W 3D 3L
Away record3W 1D 6L2W 4D 3L
Clean sheets15%20%
Both teams scored55%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.09
Over 3.5 goals26%3.83
Both teams to score53%1.88
Athletic Club or Draw69%1.46
Alavés or Draw59%1.69
Athletic Club to win and Over 2.524%4.21
Alavés to win and Over 2.518%5.62
Athletic Club clean sheet30%3.29
Alavés clean sheet25%4.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-09.8%
2-18.7%
0-08.3%
0-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Athletic Club vs Alavés?

Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Alavés is Athletic Club to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.35.

What is the score prediction for Athletic Club vs Alavés?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Athletic Club to score 1.4 goals and Alavés 1.2.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Alavés?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Athletic Club last 20 games and 14 of Alavés last 20.

How are Athletic Club playing?

Athletic Club have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Alavés playing?

Alavés have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Athletic Club and Alavés last met?

It ended Alavés 2, Athletic Club 4. In the last 2 meetings Athletic Club won 1 and Alavés won 1.

What is the best bet for Athletic Club vs Alavés?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.35, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.