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Predictions › Brasileirao › Athletico-PR vs Bahia
BrasileiraoSun 20 Sept, 22:30 UTC

Athletico-PR vs Bahia prediction

Arena da Baixada

Athletico-PRHome
1.76 : 1.13
expected goals
BahiaAway
51%Athletico-PR
25%Draw
24%Bahia
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Athletico-PR vs Bahia is Athletico-PR to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Athletico-PR to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Athletico-PR 1.8, Bahia 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.971 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Athletico-PR 51%, the draw 25% and Bahia 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Athletico-PR took 8 points from their last 5 games and Bahia took 11 from 5. Bahia come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Athletico-PR won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Bahia won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Athletico-PR score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Bahia score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Athletico-PR games and 12 of Bahia games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Athletico-PR won 0 and Bahia won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Bahia 3, Athletico-PR 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Athletico-PR vs Bahia: Athletico-PR are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Athletico-PR host Bahia in the Brasileirao on Sun 20 Sept, 22:30 at Arena da Baixada. Our prediction for Athletico-PR vs Bahia is Athletico-PR to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Athletico-PR form

Athletico-PR have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Bahia form

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Athletico-PR won 0, Bahia won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Bahia 3, Athletico-PR 0.

Our call

We expect Athletico-PR to score about 1.8 goals and Bahia about 1.1. That points to Athletico-PR to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.5 at 2.97.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Athletico-PRBahia
Games played2020
Wins107
Draws58
Losses55
Goals scored3032
Goals conceded2129
Scored per game1.51.6
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record6W 4D 0L4W 4D 2L
Away record4W 1D 5L3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets35%25%
Both teams scored50%70%
Over 2.5 goals45%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.81
Over 3.5 goals33%3.05
Both teams to score57%1.77
Athletico-PR or Draw76%1.31
Bahia or Draw49%2.06
Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.534%2.97
Bahia to win and Over 2.515%6.88
Athletico-PR clean sheet32%3.09
Bahia clean sheet17%5.81

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%
2-19.7%
1-09.1%
2-08.6%
1-26.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Athletico-PR vs Bahia?

Our prediction for Athletico-PR vs Bahia is Athletico-PR to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Athletico-PR vs Bahia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Athletico-PR to score 1.8 goals and Bahia 1.1.

Will both teams score in Athletico-PR vs Bahia?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Athletico-PR last 20 games and 14 of Bahia last 20.

How are Athletico-PR playing?

Athletico-PR have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Bahia playing?

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Athletico-PR and Bahia last met?

It ended Bahia 3, Athletico-PR 0. In the last 1 meeting Athletico-PR won 0 and Bahia won 1.

What is the best bet for Athletico-PR vs Bahia?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.