Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 5.5 runs

71% chanceFair price -2421 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Astros to win

42% chanceFair price +1391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Houston Astros 42% and Atlanta Braves 58%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Houston Astros won 2 of their last 5 and Atlanta Braves won 2 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Houston Astros won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Atlanta Braves won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Houston Astros score 4.1 runs a game and let in 4.5. Atlanta Braves score 3.3 and let in 3.3. Their recent games average 8.7 and 6.5 runs in total.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Houston Astros won 2 and Atlanta Braves won 1. The last one ended Atlanta Braves 8, Houston Astros 3.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Over 5.5 runs has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Astros +3.5 wins if Astros win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.