Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Falcons +13

74% chanceFair price -2811 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Falcons +6

54% chancePrice -110+3.3% value1 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Falcons to win

32% chancePrice +215+1.2% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Pittsburgh Steelers 68% and Atlanta Falcons 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Pittsburgh Steelers the favourite at -265.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Pittsburgh Steelers won 2 of their last 5 and Atlanta Falcons won 4 of their last 5. Atlanta Falcons come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Pittsburgh Steelers won 7 of their last 12 games at home. Atlanta Falcons won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Pittsburgh Steelers score 21.2 points a game and let in 21.9. Atlanta Falcons score 20.6 and let in 22.3. Their recent games average 43.1 and 42.8 points in total, and the market line is 41.5.

5. 5
   Where the value is

   Falcons +6 is priced at -110. Our fair price is -118, so the bookmaker pays about 3.3% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Steelers +3.5 wins if Steelers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.