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Predictions › Liga MX › Atlante vs Pachuca
Liga MXSat 12 Sept, 03:00 UTC

Atlante vs Pachuca prediction

Estadio Banorte

AtlanteHome
1.18 : 1.36
expected goals
PachucaAway
32%Atlante
28%Draw
40%Pachuca
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlante vs Pachuca is Pachuca to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction
Pachuca to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlante 1.2, Pachuca 1.4
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlante 32%, the draw 28% and Pachuca 40%. The bookmakers agree and make Pachuca the favourite at 2.35.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlante took 6 points from their last 5 games and Pachuca took 5 from 5. Atlante come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlante won 0 of their last 3 games at home. Pachuca won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlante score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Pachuca score 1.5 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of Atlante games and 9 of Pachuca games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Atlante vs Pachuca: Pachuca shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlante host Pachuca in the Liga MX on Sat 12 Sept, 03:00 at Estadio Banorte. Our prediction for Atlante vs Pachuca is Pachuca to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Atlante form

Atlante have 1 win, 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 7 games, with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Pachuca form

Pachuca have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Atlante to score about 1.2 goals and Pachuca about 1.4. That points to Pachuca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AtlantePachuca
Games played720
Wins110
Draws44
Losses26
Goals scored730
Goals conceded922
Scored per game1.01.5
Conceded per game1.31.1
Home record0W 3D 0L5W 2D 3L
Away record1W 1D 2L5W 2D 3L
Clean sheets14%25%
Both teams scored71%60%
Over 2.5 goals29%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Atlante to win32%3.162.95-6.6%
A Draw28%3.563.45-3.0%
Pachuca to win40%2.492.35-5.5%
Over 2.5 goals49%2.041.87-8.3%
Under 2.5 goals51%1.961.87-4.7%
Atlante +0.559%1.691.57-7.1%
Pachuca -0.541%2.452.25-8.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%2.14
Over 3.5 goals25%3.96
Both teams to score52%1.91
Atlante or Draw60%1.67
Pachuca or Draw68%1.46
Atlante to win and Over 2.518%5.66
Pachuca to win and Over 2.523%4.35
Atlante clean sheet26%3.91
Pachuca clean sheet31%3.26

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
0-19.9%
1-28.6%
0-08.6%
1-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlante vs Pachuca?

Our prediction for Atlante vs Pachuca is Pachuca to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Atlante vs Pachuca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Atlante to score 1.2 goals and Pachuca 1.4.

Will both teams score in Atlante vs Pachuca?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 5 of Atlante last 7 games and 12 of Pachuca last 20.

How are Atlante playing?

Atlante have 1 win, 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 7 games, with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Pachuca playing?

Pachuca have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Atlante vs Pachuca?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.