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Predictions › LaLiga › Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid
LaLigaSun 20 Sept, 14:15 UTC

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction

Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Atlético MadridHome
1.35 : 1.15
expected goals
Real MadridAway
41%Atlético
28%Draw
31%Real Madrid
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Atlético Madrid to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlético Madrid 1.4, Real Madrid 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético Madrid 41%, the draw 28% and Real Madrid 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético Madrid took 7 points from their last 5 games and Real Madrid took 12 from 5. Real Madrid come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético Madrid won 3 of their last 8 games at home. Real Madrid won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético Madrid score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.7. Real Madrid score 2.1 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Atlético Madrid games and 13 of Real Madrid games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Atlético Madrid won 1 and Real Madrid won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Real Madrid 3, Atlético Madrid 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: Atlético Madrid shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Madrid host Real Madrid in the LaLiga on Sun 20 Sept, 14:15 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Atlético Madrid form

Atlético Madrid have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Real Madrid form

Real Madrid have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Atlético Madrid won 1, Real Madrid won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Real Madrid 3, Atlético Madrid 2.

Our call

We expect Atlético Madrid to score about 1.4 goals and Real Madrid about 1.1. That points to Atlético Madrid to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.41.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AtléticoReal Madrid
Games played2020
Wins713
Draws22
Losses115
Goals scored2942
Goals conceded3423
Scored per game1.42.1
Conceded per game1.71.1
Home record3W 2D 3L9W 1D 1L
Away record4W 0D 8L4W 1D 4L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals65%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals46%2.19
Over 3.5 goals24%4.12
Both teams to score51%1.94
Atlético Madrid or Draw69%1.45
Real Madrid or Draw59%1.68
Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.523%4.39
Real Madrid to win and Over 2.517%5.89
Atlético Madrid clean sheet32%3.16
Real Madrid clean sheet26%3.86

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%
1-010.3%
0-09.0%
0-18.7%
2-18.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Atlético Madrid to score 1.4 goals and Real Madrid 1.1.

Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Atlético Madrid last 20 games and 13 of Real Madrid last 20.

How are Atlético Madrid playing?

Atlético Madrid have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Real Madrid playing?

Real Madrid have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid last met?

It ended Real Madrid 3, Atlético Madrid 2. In the last 2 meetings Atlético Madrid won 1 and Real Madrid won 1.

What is the best bet for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.