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Predictions › Brasileirao › Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense
BrasileiraoSat 19 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense prediction

Arena MRV

Atlético-MGHome
1.92 : 0.93
expected goals
ChapecoenseAway
60%Atlético-MG
23%Draw
17%Chapecoense
Eagle safe pickAtlético-MG or Draw
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense is Atlético-MG to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction
Atlético-MG to win
Chance
60%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlético-MG 1.9, Chapecoense 0.9
Best bet
Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Atlético-MG or Draw
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 2.581 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético-MG 60%, the draw 23% and Chapecoense 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético-MG took 8 points from their last 5 games and Chapecoense took 7 from 5. Atlético-MG come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético-MG won 5 of their last 8 games at home. Chapecoense won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético-MG score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.1. Chapecoense score 0.9 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Atlético-MG games and 12 of Chapecoense games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Atlético-MG won 1 and Chapecoense won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Chapecoense 0, Atlético-MG 4.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Atlético-MG or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense: Atlético-MG are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético-MG host Chapecoense in the Brasileirao on Sat 19 Sept, 19:00 at Arena MRV. Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense is Atlético-MG to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.21.

Atlético-MG form

Atlético-MG have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Chapecoense form

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 41 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Atlético-MG won 1, Chapecoense won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Chapecoense 0, Atlético-MG 4.

Our call

We expect Atlético-MG to score about 1.9 goals and Chapecoense about 0.9. That points to Atlético-MG to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.5 at 2.58.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Atlético-MGChapecoense
Games played2020
Wins92
Draws45
Losses713
Goals scored2518
Goals conceded2241
Scored per game1.30.9
Conceded per game1.12.0
Home record5W 2D 1L1W 3D 5L
Away record4W 2D 6L1W 2D 8L
Clean sheets25%10%
Both teams scored40%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.84
Over 3.5 goals32%3.13
Both teams to score52%1.91
Atlético-MG or Draw83%1.21
Chapecoense or Draw40%2.50
Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.539%2.58
Chapecoense to win and Over 2.510%10.17
Atlético-MG clean sheet39%2.54
Chapecoense clean sheet15%6.83

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%
2-010.7%
1-010.5%
2-19.9%
3-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense?

Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense is Atlético-MG to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-0. We expect Atlético-MG to score 1.9 goals and Chapecoense 0.9.

Will both teams score in Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Atlético-MG last 20 games and 12 of Chapecoense last 20.

How are Atlético-MG playing?

Atlético-MG have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Chapecoense playing?

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 41 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Atlético-MG and Chapecoense last met?

It ended Chapecoense 0, Atlético-MG 4. In the last 1 meeting Atlético-MG won 1 and Chapecoense won 0.

What is the best bet for Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense?

Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.