Predictions › Brasileirao › Atlético-MG vs Fluminense

BrasileiraoSat 12 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Atlético-MG vs Fluminense prediction

Arena MRV

Atlético-MGHome

1.42 : 1.09

expected goals

FluminenseAway

44%Atlético-MG

28%Draw

28%Fluminense

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Fluminense is Atlético-MG to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Atlético-MG to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Atlético-MG 1.4, Fluminense 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.501 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Atlético-MG 44%, the draw 28% and Fluminense 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético-MG the favourite at 2.25.
2
Recent form
Atlético-MG took 8 points from their last 5 games and Fluminense took 11 from 5. Fluminense come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Atlético-MG won 5 of their last 8 games at home. Fluminense won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Atlético-MG score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.1. Fluminense score 1.5 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Atlético-MG games and 10 of Fluminense games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Atlético-MG won 0 and Fluminense won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Fluminense 1, Atlético-MG 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Atlético-MG vs Fluminense: Atlético-MG shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético-MG host Fluminense in the Brasileirao on Sat 12 Sept, 19:00 at Arena MRV. Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Fluminense is Atlético-MG to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Atlético-MG form

Atlético-MG have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Fluminense form

Fluminense have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Atlético-MG won 0, Fluminense won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Fluminense 1, Atlético-MG 0.

Our call

We expect Atlético-MG to score about 1.4 goals and Fluminense about 1.1. That points to Atlético-MG to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.50.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Atlético-MG	Fluminense
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	8
Draws	4	8
Losses	7	4
Goals scored	25	30
Goals conceded	22	26
Scored per game	1.3	1.5
Conceded per game	1.1	1.3
Home record	5W 2D 1L	7W 3D 1L
Away record	4W 2D 6L	1W 5D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	15%
Both teams scored	40%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Atlético-MG to win	44%	2.29	2.25	-1.5%
A Draw	28%	3.57	3.25	-9.1%
Fluminense to win	28%	3.54	3.30	-6.8%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.27	2.15	-5.1%
Under 2.5 goals	56%	1.79	1.65	-8.1%
Atlético-MG -0.5	43%	2.30	2.15	-6.5%
Fluminense +0.5	57%	1.77	1.65	-7.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.17
Over 3.5 goals	25%	4.07
Both teams to score	51%	1.95
Atlético-MG or Draw	72%	1.39
Fluminense or Draw	56%	1.78
Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.02
Fluminense to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.52
Atlético-MG clean sheet	34%	2.98
Fluminense clean sheet	24%	4.14

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

1-010.7%

2-18.9%

0-08.8%

2-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético-MG vs Fluminense?

Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Fluminense is Atlético-MG to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Atlético-MG vs Fluminense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Atlético-MG to score 1.4 goals and Fluminense 1.1.

Will both teams score in Atlético-MG vs Fluminense?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Atlético-MG last 20 games and 15 of Fluminense last 20.

How are Atlético-MG playing?

How are Fluminense playing?

What happened when Atlético-MG and Fluminense last met?

It ended Fluminense 1, Atlético-MG 0. In the last 2 meetings Atlético-MG won 0 and Fluminense won 2.

What is the best bet for Atlético-MG vs Fluminense?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.