Ball State Cardinals vs Liberty Flames prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Liberty -7.5

74% chanceFair price -2861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Liberty Flames 87% and Ball State Cardinals 13%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Liberty Flames won 0 of their last 5 and Ball State Cardinals won 1 of their last 5. Ball State Cardinals come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Liberty Flames won 2 of their last 5 games at home. Ball State Cardinals won 0 of their last 6 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Liberty Flames score 24.4 points a game and let in 27.0. Ball State Cardinals score 17.3 and let in 31.0. Their recent games average 51.4 and 48.3 points in total.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Liberty -7.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 11 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Liberty +3.5 wins if Liberty win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.