Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Ravens to win

62% chancePrice -1751 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Under 47.5 points

54% chancePrice -105+4.6% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Indianapolis Colts 38% and Baltimore Ravens 62%. The bookmakers agree and make Baltimore Ravens the favourite at -175.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Indianapolis Colts won 0 of their last 5 and Baltimore Ravens won 4 of their last 5. Baltimore Ravens come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Indianapolis Colts won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Baltimore Ravens won 6 of their last 8 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Indianapolis Colts score 24.6 points a game and let in 25.1. Baltimore Ravens score 24.3 and let in 19.5. Their recent games average 49.7 and 43.8 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.

5. 5
   Where the value is

   Under 47.5 points is priced at -105. Our fair price is -116, so the bookmaker pays about 4.6% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 19 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Colts +3.5 wins if Colts win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.