Predictions › Bundesliga › Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

BundesligaSun 20 Sept, 13:30 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig prediction

BayArena

Bayer LeverkusenHome

1.98 : 1.31

expected goals

RB LeipzigAway

52%Leverkusen

23%Draw

25%RB Leipzig

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.0, RB Leipzig 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5

38% chanceFair price 2.601 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen 52%, the draw 23% and RB Leipzig 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 1.83.
2
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen took 7 points from their last 5 games and RB Leipzig took 6 from 5. Bayer Leverkusen come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Bayer Leverkusen won 4 of their last 10 games at home. RB Leipzig won 5 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Bayer Leverkusen score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.3. RB Leipzig score 1.9 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Bayer Leverkusen games and 17 of RB Leipzig games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 2 and RB Leipzig won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Bayer Leverkusen 4, RB Leipzig 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: Bayer Leverkusen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bayer Leverkusen host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Sun 20 Sept, 13:30 at BayArena. Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Bayer Leverkusen form

Bayer Leverkusen have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, W, newest first.

RB Leipzig form

RB Leipzig have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Bayer Leverkusen won 2, RB Leipzig won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Bayer Leverkusen 4, RB Leipzig 1.

Our call

We expect Bayer Leverkusen to score about 2.0 goals and RB Leipzig about 1.3. That points to Bayer Leverkusen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5 at 2.60.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Leverkusen	RB Leipzig
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	11
Draws	7	3
Losses	5	6
Goals scored	38	38
Goals conceded	26	30
Scored per game	1.9	1.9
Conceded per game	1.3	1.5
Home record	4W 5D 1L	6W 2D 1L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	5W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	85%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Bayer Leverkusen to win	52%	1.91	1.83	-3.8%
A Draw	23%	4.36	3.90	-10.6%
RB Leipzig to win	25%	4.07	3.35	-17.6%
Over 3.5 goals	47%	2.12	1.87	-11.8%
Under 3.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.83	-3.2%
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5	51%	1.95	1.77	-9.1%
RB Leipzig +0.5	49%	2.06	1.83	-10.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	85%	1.18
Over 2.5 goals	64%	1.56
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.39
Both teams to score	64%	1.57
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	75%	1.33
RB Leipzig or Draw	48%	2.10
Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5	38%	2.60
RB Leipzig to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.84
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	27%	3.71
RB Leipzig clean sheet	14%	7.26

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.2%

2-19.6%

2-07.3%

1-06.8%

1-26.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Bayer Leverkusen to score 2.0 goals and RB Leipzig 1.3.

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Bayer Leverkusen last 20 games and 15 of RB Leipzig last 20.

How are Bayer Leverkusen playing?

How are RB Leipzig playing?

What happened when Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig last met?

It ended Bayer Leverkusen 4, RB Leipzig 1. In the last 2 meetings Bayer Leverkusen won 2 and RB Leipzig won 0.

What is the best bet for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.