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Predictions › Bundesliga › Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin
BundesligaFri 18 Sept, 18:30 UTC

Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction

Allianz Arena

Bayern MunichHome
3.71 : 1.13
expected goals
1. FC Union BerlinAway
83%Bayern
10%Draw
7%Union Berlin
Eagle safe pickBayern Munich to win and Over 2.5
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin is Bayern Munich to win, with a 83% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5 at 1.33.

Prediction
Bayern Munich to win
Chance
83%
Most likely score
3-1
Expected goals
Bayern Munich 3.7, 1. FC Union Berlin 1.1
Best bet
Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5 at 1.33
Both teams to score
66%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5
75% chanceFair price 1.331 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 3-1
8% chanceFair price 13.131 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Bayern Munich 83%, the draw 10% and 1. FC Union Berlin 7%. The bookmakers agree and make Bayern Munich the favourite at 1.10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Bayern Munich took 13 points from their last 5 games and 1. FC Union Berlin took 7 from 5. Bayern Munich come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Bayern Munich won 8 of their last 10 games at home. 1. FC Union Berlin won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Bayern Munich score 3.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. 1. FC Union Berlin score 1.3 and let in 2.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Bayern Munich games and 14 of 1. FC Union Berlin games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Bayern Munich won 1 and 1. FC Union Berlin won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Bayern Munich 4, 1. FC Union Berlin 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin: Bayern Munich are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bayern Munich host 1. FC Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on Fri 18 Sept, 18:30 at Allianz Arena. Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin is Bayern Munich to win, with a 83% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5 at 1.33.

Bayern Munich form

Bayern Munich have 15 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 68 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

1. FC Union Berlin form

1. FC Union Berlin have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 42 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Bayern Munich won 1, 1. FC Union Berlin won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Bayern Munich 4, 1. FC Union Berlin 0.

Our call

We expect Bayern Munich to score about 3.7 goals and 1. FC Union Berlin about 1.1. That points to Bayern Munich to win, with 3-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5 at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 3-1 at 13.13.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BayernUnion Berlin
Games played2020
Wins154
Draws45
Losses111
Goals scored6825
Goals conceded2842
Scored per game3.41.3
Conceded per game1.42.1
Home record8W 2D 0L2W 4D 4L
Away record7W 2D 1L2W 1D 7L
Clean sheets25%15%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals80%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Bayern Munich to win83%1.201.10-8.5%
A Draw10%9.929.00-9.3%
1. FC Union Berlin to win7%14.8213.00-12.3%
Over 4.5 goals48%2.092.05-2.1%
Under 4.5 goals52%1.911.71-10.5%
Bayern Munich -2.552%1.921.71-10.5%
1. FC Union Berlin +2.548%2.091.95-6.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals96%1.05
Over 2.5 goals86%1.16
Over 3.5 goals71%1.41
Both teams to score66%1.51
Bayern Munich or Draw93%1.07
1. FC Union Berlin or Draw17%5.94
Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.575%1.33
1. FC Union Berlin to win and Over 2.56%18.02
Bayern Munich clean sheet32%3.08
1. FC Union Berlin clean sheet2%40.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

3-17.6%
4-17.1%
3-06.8%
4-06.3%
2-16.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

Our prediction for Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin is Bayern Munich to win, with a 83% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5 at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

3-1 is the most likely score, followed by 4-1 and 3-0. We expect Bayern Munich to score 3.7 goals and 1. FC Union Berlin 1.1.

Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

Both teams to score has a 66% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Bayern Munich last 20 games and 13 of 1. FC Union Berlin last 20.

How are Bayern Munich playing?

Bayern Munich have 15 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 68 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

How are 1. FC Union Berlin playing?

1. FC Union Berlin have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 42 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Bayern Munich and 1. FC Union Berlin last met?

It ended Bayern Munich 4, 1. FC Union Berlin 0. In the last 2 meetings Bayern Munich won 1 and 1. FC Union Berlin won 0.

What is the best bet for Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

Bayern Munich to win and Over 2.5 at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.