Predictions › Primeira Liga › Benfica vs Gil Vicente

Primeira LigaSun 13 Sept, 17:00 UTC

Benfica vs Gil Vicente prediction

Estádio da Luz

BenficaHome

2.63 : 0.82

expected goals

Gil VicenteAway

76%Benfica

16%Draw

9%Gil Vicente

Eagle safe pickGil Vicente +2.5

1.56

Quick answer

Our prediction for Benfica vs Gil Vicente is Benfica to win, with a 76% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Gil Vicente +2.5 at 1.56.

Prediction: Benfica to win
Chance: 76%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Benfica 2.6, Gil Vicente 0.8
Best bet: Gil Vicente +2.5 at 1.56
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Gil Vicente +2.5

61% chancePrice 1.561 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Benfica to win and both score

35% chanceFair price 2.851 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Benfica 76%, the draw 16% and Gil Vicente 9%. The bookmakers agree and make Benfica the favourite at 1.15.
2
Recent form
Benfica took 13 points from their last 5 games and Gil Vicente took 7 from 5. Benfica come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Benfica won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Gil Vicente won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Benfica score 2.5 goals a game and let in 0.9. Gil Vicente score 1.3 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 17 of Benfica games and 13 of Gil Vicente games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Benfica won 2 and Gil Vicente won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Gil Vicente 1, Benfica 2.
6
The safest bet
Gil Vicente +2.5 has a 61% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Benfica vs Gil Vicente: Benfica are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Benfica host Gil Vicente in the Primeira Liga on Sun 13 Sept, 17:00 at Estádio da Luz. Our prediction for Benfica vs Gil Vicente is Benfica to win, with a 76% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Gil Vicente +2.5 at 1.56.

Benfica form

Benfica have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Gil Vicente form

Gil Vicente have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Benfica won 2, Gil Vicente won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Gil Vicente 1, Benfica 2.

Our call

We expect Benfica to score about 2.6 goals and Gil Vicente about 0.8. That points to Benfica to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Gil Vicente +2.5 at 1.56. Our bold bet is Benfica to win and both score at 2.85.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Benfica	Gil Vicente
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	7
Draws	5	5
Losses	2	8
Goals scored	49	26
Goals conceded	19	26
Scored per game	2.5	1.3
Conceded per game	0.9	1.3
Home record	5W 3D 1L	6W 1D 4L
Away record	8W 2D 1L	1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	85%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Benfica to win	76%	1.32	1.15	-12.8%
A Draw	16%	6.43	7.50	+16.6%
Gil Vicente to win	9%	11.26	14.00	+24.3%
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.39	2.30	-3.8%
Under 3.5 goals	58%	1.72	1.56	-9.5%
Benfica -2.5	39%	2.56	2.20	-14.1%
Gil Vicente +2.5	61%	1.64	1.56	-5.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	1.16
Over 2.5 goals	67%	1.49
Over 3.5 goals	45%	2.21
Both teams to score	52%	1.91
Benfica or Draw	91%	1.10
Gil Vicente or Draw	24%	4.09
Benfica to win and Over 2.5	57%	1.76
Gil Vicente to win and Over 2.5	6%	17.78
Benfica clean sheet	44%	2.27
Gil Vicente clean sheet	7%	13.89

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.0%

3-09.6%

2-19.0%

1-07.9%

3-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

Our prediction for Benfica vs Gil Vicente is Benfica to win, with a 76% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Gil Vicente +2.5 at 1.56.

What is the score prediction for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 2-1. We expect Benfica to score 2.6 goals and Gil Vicente 0.8.

Will both teams score in Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Benfica last 20 games and 9 of Gil Vicente last 20.

How are Benfica playing?

How are Gil Vicente playing?

What happened when Benfica and Gil Vicente last met?

It ended Gil Vicente 1, Benfica 2. In the last 2 meetings Benfica won 2 and Gil Vicente won 0.

What is the best bet for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?

Gil Vicente +2.5 at 1.56, with a 61% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.