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Predictions › Europa League › Besiktas vs Marseille
Europa LeagueThu 17 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Besiktas vs Marseille prediction

Vodafone Park

BesiktasHome
1.91 : 1.15
expected goals
MarseilleAway
54%Besiktas
24%Draw
22%Marseille
Eagle value pickBesiktas to win
1.91

Quick answer

Our prediction for Besiktas vs Marseille is Besiktas to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Besiktas to win at 1.91.

Prediction
Besiktas to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Besiktas 1.9, Marseille 1.1
Best bet
Besiktas to win at 1.91
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.232 units
★

Eagle value pick

Besiktas to win
54% chancePrice 1.91+3.6% value1 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Besiktas to win and Over 2.5
37% chanceFair price 2.671 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Besiktas 54%, the draw 24% and Marseille 22%. The bookmakers agree and make Besiktas the favourite at 1.91.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Besiktas took 12 points from their last 5 games and Marseille took 6 from 5. Besiktas come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Besiktas won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Marseille won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Besiktas score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.0. Marseille score 1.3 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Besiktas games and 12 of Marseille games in that run.

  5. 5
    Where the value is

    Besiktas to win is priced at 1.91. Our fair price is 1.84, so the bookmaker pays about 3.6% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Besiktas vs Marseille: Besiktas are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Besiktas host Marseille in the Europa League on Thu 17 Sept, 19:00 at Vodafone Park. Our prediction for Besiktas vs Marseille is Besiktas to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Besiktas to win at 1.91.

Besiktas form

Besiktas have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Marseille form

Marseille have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Besiktas to score about 1.9 goals and Marseille about 1.1. That points to Besiktas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our value bet is Besiktas to win at 1.91. Our bold bet is Besiktas to win and Over 2.5 at 2.67.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BesiktasMarseille
Games played2020
Wins127
Draws33
Losses510
Goals scored3825
Goals conceded2034
Scored per game1.91.3
Conceded per game1.01.7
Home record7W 2D 2L5W 2D 2L
Away record5W 1D 3L2W 1D 8L
Clean sheets35%20%
Both teams scored50%45%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Besiktas to win54%1.841.91+3.6%
A Draw23%4.263.95-7.2%
Marseille to win22%4.503.55-21.1%
Over 2.5 goals59%1.691.59-6.1%
Under 2.5 goals41%2.452.30-6.0%
Besiktas -0.551%1.951.83-6.0%
Marseille +0.549%2.051.83-10.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.69
Over 3.5 goals37%2.73
Both teams to score59%1.70
Besiktas or Draw78%1.29
Marseille or Draw46%2.19
Besiktas to win and Over 2.537%2.67
Marseille to win and Over 2.514%6.99
Besiktas clean sheet32%3.17
Marseille clean sheet15%6.73

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%
2-19.8%
2-08.5%
1-08.3%
3-16.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Besiktas vs Marseille?

Our prediction for Besiktas vs Marseille is Besiktas to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Besiktas to win at 1.91.

What is the score prediction for Besiktas vs Marseille?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Besiktas to score 1.9 goals and Marseille 1.1.

Will both teams score in Besiktas vs Marseille?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Besiktas last 20 games and 9 of Marseille last 20.

How are Besiktas playing?

Besiktas have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Marseille playing?

Marseille have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Besiktas vs Marseille?

Besiktas to win at 1.91, with a 54% chance. That price pays about 3.6% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.