Predictions › United Kingdom › Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough

ChampionshipSat 19 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough prediction

St. Andrew's Stadium

Birmingham CityHome

1.46 : 1.31

expected goals

MiddlesbroughAway

40%Birmingham

27%Draw

33%Boro

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough is Birmingham City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Birmingham City to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Birmingham City 1.5, Middlesbrough 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Birmingham City 40%, the draw 27% and Middlesbrough 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Birmingham City took 5 points from their last 5 games and Middlesbrough took 10 from 5. Middlesbrough come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Birmingham City won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Middlesbrough won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Birmingham City score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Middlesbrough score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Birmingham City games and 11 of Middlesbrough games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Birmingham City won 0 and Middlesbrough won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Birmingham City 1, Middlesbrough 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough: Birmingham City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Birmingham City host Middlesbrough in the Championship on Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 at St. Andrew's Stadium. Our prediction for Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough is Birmingham City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Birmingham City form

Birmingham City have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, L, newest first.

Middlesbrough form

Middlesbrough have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Birmingham City won 0, Middlesbrough won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Birmingham City 1, Middlesbrough 3.

Our call

We expect Birmingham City to score about 1.5 goals and Middlesbrough about 1.3. That points to Birmingham City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Birmingham	Boro
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	7
Draws	7	7
Losses	7	6
Goals scored	22	27
Goals conceded	27	23
Scored per game	1.1	1.4
Conceded per game	1.4	1.1
Home record	4W 4D 3L	5W 2D 2L
Away record	2W 3D 4L	2W 5D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	65%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	3/10
Over 2.5 goals	52%	10/11
Over 3.5 goals	30%	12/5
Both teams to score	57%	4/5
Birmingham City or Draw	67%	1/2
Middlesbrough or Draw	60%	4/6
Birmingham City to win and Over 2.5	25%	3/1
Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5	20%	4/1
Birmingham City clean sheet	27%	11/4
Middlesbrough clean sheet	23%	10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%

2-18.7%

1-08.5%

1-27.8%

0-17.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough?

Our prediction for Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough is Birmingham City to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Birmingham City to score 1.5 goals and Middlesbrough 1.3.

Will both teams score in Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Birmingham City last 20 games and 12 of Middlesbrough last 20.

How are Birmingham City playing?

How are Middlesbrough playing?

What happened when Birmingham City and Middlesbrough last met?

It ended Birmingham City 1, Middlesbrough 3. In the last 2 meetings Birmingham City won 0 and Middlesbrough won 2.

What is the best bet for Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.