Predictions › United Kingdom › Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall

ChampionshipSat 12 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall prediction

Ewood Park

Blackburn RoversHome

1.18 : 1.36

expected goals

MillwallAway

32%Blackburn

28%Draw

40%Millwall

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall is Millwall to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction: Millwall to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Blackburn Rovers 1.2, Millwall 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1/31 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Millwall to win

40% chancePrice 6/4+0.8% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Blackburn Rovers 32%, the draw 28% and Millwall 40%. The bookmakers agree and make Millwall the favourite at 6/4.
2
Recent form
Blackburn Rovers took 1 point from their last 5 games and Millwall took 6 from 5. Millwall come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Blackburn Rovers won 1 of their last 9 games at home. Millwall won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Blackburn Rovers score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Millwall score 1.3 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Blackburn Rovers games and 8 of Millwall games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Blackburn Rovers won 2 and Millwall won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Millwall 1, Blackburn Rovers 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall: Millwall shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Blackburn Rovers host Millwall in the Championship on Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 at Ewood Park. Our prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall is Millwall to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Blackburn Rovers form

Blackburn Rovers have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Millwall form

Millwall have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Blackburn Rovers won 2, Millwall won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Millwall 1, Blackburn Rovers 2.

Our call

We expect Blackburn Rovers to score about 1.2 goals and Millwall about 1.4. That points to Millwall to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Millwall to win at 6/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Blackburn	Millwall
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	9
Draws	7	5
Losses	8	6
Goals scored	20	26
Goals conceded	25	20
Scored per game	1.0	1.3
Conceded per game	1.3	1.0
Home record	1W 4D 4L	5W 0D 5L
Away record	4W 3D 4L	4W 5D 1L
Clean sheets	20%	45%
Both teams scored	65%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Blackburn Rovers to win	32%	11/5	9/5	-11.7%
A Draw	28%	13/5	5/2	-2.9%
Millwall to win	40%	6/4	6/4	+0.8%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	21/20	5/6	-7.7%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	Evens	10/11	-3.3%
Blackburn Rovers +0.5	60%	4/6	8/15	-7.9%
Millwall -0.5	40%	6/4	11/8	-6.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	4/11
Over 2.5 goals	47%	11/10
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3/1
Both teams to score	52%	10/11
Blackburn Rovers or Draw	60%	4/6
Millwall or Draw	68%	4/9
Blackburn Rovers to win and Over 2.5	18%	9/2
Millwall to win and Over 2.5	23%	10/3
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet	26%	3/1
Millwall clean sheet	31%	9/4

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%

0-110.0%

0-08.6%

1-28.6%

1-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall?

Our prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall is Millwall to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Blackburn Rovers to score 1.2 goals and Millwall 1.4.

Will both teams score in Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Blackburn Rovers last 20 games and 8 of Millwall last 20.

How are Blackburn Rovers playing?

How are Millwall playing?

What happened when Blackburn Rovers and Millwall last met?

It ended Millwall 1, Blackburn Rovers 2. In the last 2 meetings Blackburn Rovers won 2 and Millwall won 0.

What is the best bet for Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.