PredictionsUnited KingdomBolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City
ChampionshipSat 12 Sept, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City prediction

Toughsheet Community Stadium

Bolton WanderersHome
1.54 : 1.56
expected goals
Cardiff CityAway
37%Bolton
25%Draw
38%Cardiff
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
4/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City is Cardiff City to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 4/7.

Prediction
Cardiff City to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Bolton Wanderers 1.5, Cardiff City 1.6
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at 4/7
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
60% chancePrice 4/71 unit

Eagle bold pick

Bolton Wanderers to win
37% chancePrice 13/81 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Bolton Wanderers 37%, the draw 25% and Cardiff City 38%. The bookmakers agree and make Cardiff City the favourite at 6/4.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Bolton Wanderers took 1 point from their last 5 games and Cardiff City took 2 from 5. Cardiff City come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Bolton Wanderers won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Cardiff City won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Bolton Wanderers score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.5. Cardiff City score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Bolton Wanderers games and 9 of Cardiff City games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Bolton Wanderers won 1 and Cardiff City won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cardiff City 2, Bolton Wanderers 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City: Cardiff City shade it

The big picture

Bolton Wanderers host Cardiff City in the Championship on Sat 12 Sept, 12:30 at Toughsheet Community Stadium. Our prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City is Cardiff City to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 4/7.

Bolton Wanderers form

Bolton Wanderers have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Cardiff City form

Cardiff City have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Bolton Wanderers won 1, Cardiff City won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cardiff City 2, Bolton Wanderers 0.

Our call

We expect Bolton Wanderers to score about 1.5 goals and Cardiff City about 1.6. That points to Cardiff City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 4/7. Our bold bet is Bolton Wanderers to win at 13/8.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BoltonCardiff
Games played2020
Wins66
Draws68
Losses86
Goals scored2933
Goals conceded3028
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.51.4
Home record4W 3D 3L4W 4D 3L
Away record2W 3D 5L2W 4D 3L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored55%65%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Bolton Wanderers to win37%7/413/8-1.5%
A Draw25%3/111/4-5.7%
Cardiff City to win38%13/86/4-5.8%
Over 2.5 goals60%4/64/7-6.0%
Under 2.5 goals40%6/47/5-5.0%
Bolton Wanderers +0.561%8/138/15-6.0%
Cardiff City -0.539%8/511/8-8.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%2/9
Over 2.5 goals60%4/6
Over 3.5 goals38%13/8
Both teams to score63%8/13
Bolton Wanderers or Draw62%8/13
Cardiff City or Draw63%4/7
Bolton Wanderers to win and Over 2.525%3/1
Cardiff City to win and Over 2.526%11/4
Bolton Wanderers clean sheet21%7/2
Cardiff City clean sheet21%7/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.5%
1-28.4%
2-18.4%
2-26.5%
0-16.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City?

Our prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City is Cardiff City to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 4/7.

What is the score prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Bolton Wanderers to score 1.5 goals and Cardiff City 1.6.

Will both teams score in Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Bolton Wanderers last 20 games and 13 of Cardiff City last 20.

How are Bolton Wanderers playing?

Bolton Wanderers have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

How are Cardiff City playing?

Cardiff City have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Bolton Wanderers and Cardiff City last met?

It ended Cardiff City 2, Bolton Wanderers 0. In the last 2 meetings Bolton Wanderers won 1 and Cardiff City won 1.

What is the best bet for Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City?

Over 2.5 goals at 4/7, with a 60% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.