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Predictions › Bundesliga › Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz
BundesligaSat 19 Sept, 13:30 UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz prediction

BORUSSIA-PARK

Borussia MönchengladbachHome
1.49 : 1.68
expected goals
MainzAway
34%Gladbach
25%Draw
42%Mainz
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz is Mainz to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction
Mainz to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.5, Mainz 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.202 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mainz to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach 34%, the draw 25% and Mainz 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Mainz the favourite at 2.30.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Borussia Mönchengladbach took 6 points from their last 5 games and Mainz took 10 from 5. Mainz come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Mainz won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Borussia Mönchengladbach score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.8. Mainz score 1.5 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Borussia Mönchengladbach games and 9 of Mainz games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 and Mainz won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 1, Mainz 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz: Mainz shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Borussia Mönchengladbach host Mainz in the Bundesliga on Sat 19 Sept, 13:30 at BORUSSIA-PARK. Our prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz is Mainz to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Borussia Mönchengladbach form

Borussia Mönchengladbach have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Mainz form

Mainz have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1, Mainz won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Borussia Mönchengladbach 1, Mainz 1.

Our call

We expect Borussia Mönchengladbach to score about 1.5 goals and Mainz about 1.7. That points to Mainz to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Mainz to win and Over 2.5 at 3.41.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

GladbachMainz
Games played2020
Wins49
Draws76
Losses95
Goals scored2330
Goals conceded3624
Scored per game1.11.5
Conceded per game1.81.2
Home record4W 3D 2L4W 3D 3L
Away record0W 4D 7L5W 3D 2L
Clean sheets30%40%
Both teams scored50%45%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win34%2.982.65-11.0%
A Draw25%4.043.60-11.0%
Mainz to win42%2.402.30-4.1%
Over 2.5 goals61%1.651.54-6.5%
Under 2.5 goals39%2.542.35-7.5%
Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.558%1.711.57-8.4%
Mainz -0.542%2.402.20-8.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.20
Over 2.5 goals61%1.63
Over 3.5 goals39%2.57
Both teams to score64%1.57
Borussia Mönchengladbach or Draw58%1.71
Mainz or Draw66%1.51
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win and Over 2.523%4.30
Mainz to win and Over 2.529%3.41
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet19%5.35
Mainz clean sheet23%4.43

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.2%
1-28.8%
2-17.8%
2-26.6%
0-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz?

Our prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz is Mainz to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Borussia Mönchengladbach to score 1.5 goals and Mainz 1.7.

Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Borussia Mönchengladbach last 20 games and 9 of Mainz last 20.

How are Borussia Mönchengladbach playing?

Borussia Mönchengladbach have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Mainz playing?

Mainz have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Borussia Mönchengladbach and Mainz last met?

It ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 1, Mainz 1. In the last 2 meetings Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 and Mainz won 0.

What is the best bet for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.