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Predictions › Brasileirao › Botafogo vs Grêmio
BrasileiraoWed 16 Sept, 22:30 UTC

Botafogo vs Grêmio prediction

Joao Havelange Stadium

BotafogoHome
1.70 : 0.94
expected goals
GrêmioAway
54%Botafogo
25%Draw
20%Grêmio
Eagle safe pickBotafogo or Draw
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Grêmio is Botafogo to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Botafogo or Draw at 1.25.

Prediction
Botafogo to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Botafogo 1.7, Grêmio 0.9
Best bet
Botafogo or Draw at 1.25
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Botafogo or Draw
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Botafogo to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.061 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Botafogo 54%, the draw 25% and Grêmio 20%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Botafogo took 2 points from their last 5 games and Grêmio took 6 from 5. Grêmio come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Botafogo won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Grêmio won 0 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Botafogo score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Grêmio score 0.9 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Botafogo games and 8 of Grêmio games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Botafogo won 1 and Grêmio won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Grêmio 5, Botafogo 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Botafogo or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Botafogo vs Grêmio: Botafogo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Botafogo host Grêmio in the Brasileirao on Wed 16 Sept, 22:30 at Joao Havelange Stadium. Our prediction for Botafogo vs Grêmio is Botafogo to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Botafogo or Draw at 1.25.

Botafogo form

Botafogo have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Grêmio form

Grêmio have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Botafogo won 1, Grêmio won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Grêmio 5, Botafogo 3.

Our call

We expect Botafogo to score about 1.7 goals and Grêmio about 0.9. That points to Botafogo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Botafogo or Draw at 1.25. Our bold bet is Botafogo to win and Over 2.5 at 3.06.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BotafogoGrêmio
Games played2020
Wins75
Draws76
Losses69
Goals scored2918
Goals conceded2924
Scored per game1.40.9
Conceded per game1.41.2
Home record3W 5D 2L5W 2D 2L
Away record4W 2D 4L0W 4D 7L
Clean sheets15%25%
Both teams scored75%50%
Over 2.5 goals65%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.34
Over 2.5 goals49%2.03
Over 3.5 goals27%3.66
Both teams to score51%1.98
Botafogo or Draw80%1.25
Grêmio or Draw46%2.19
Botafogo to win and Over 2.533%3.06
Grêmio to win and Over 2.511%9.11
Botafogo clean sheet39%2.57
Grêmio clean sheet18%5.46

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
1-011.4%
2-010.3%
2-19.7%
0-07.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Botafogo vs Grêmio?

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Grêmio is Botafogo to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Botafogo or Draw at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Botafogo vs Grêmio?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Botafogo to score 1.7 goals and Grêmio 0.9.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Grêmio?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Botafogo last 20 games and 10 of Grêmio last 20.

How are Botafogo playing?

Botafogo have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, D, newest first.

How are Grêmio playing?

Grêmio have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Botafogo and Grêmio last met?

It ended Grêmio 5, Botafogo 3. In the last 3 meetings Botafogo won 1 and Grêmio won 1.

What is the best bet for Botafogo vs Grêmio?

Botafogo or Draw at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.