Bowling Green Falcons vs Nebraska Cornhuskers prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Over 40.5 points

75% chanceFair price -2931 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Nebraska Cornhuskers 96% and Bowling Green Falcons 4%. The bookmakers agree and make Nebraska Cornhuskers the favourite at -5000.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Nebraska Cornhuskers won 2 of their last 5 and Bowling Green Falcons won 1 of their last 5. Nebraska Cornhuskers come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Nebraska Cornhuskers won 4 of their last 7 games at home. Bowling Green Falcons won 1 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Nebraska Cornhuskers score 27.8 points a game and let in 27.0. Bowling Green Falcons score 19.4 and let in 24.5. Their recent games average 54.8 and 43.9 points in total, and the market line is 50.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Over 40.5 points has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Nebraska +3.5 wins if Nebraska win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.