Predictions › Primeira Liga › Braga vs Estoril

Primeira LigaMon 14 Sept, 19:45 UTC

Braga vs Estoril prediction

Estádio Municipal de Braga

BragaHome

2.01 : 0.90

expected goals

EstorilAway

63%Braga

22%Draw

15%Estoril

Eagle safe pickBraga or Draw

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Braga vs Estoril is Braga to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Braga or Draw at 1.18.

Prediction: Braga to win
Chance: 63%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Braga 2.0, Estoril 0.9
Best bet: Braga or Draw at 1.18
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Braga or Draw

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Braga to win and Over 2.5

41% chanceFair price 2.421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Braga 63%, the draw 22% and Estoril 15%. The bookmakers agree and make Braga the favourite at 1.44.
2
Recent form
Braga took 8 points from their last 5 games and Estoril took 2 from 5. Braga come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Braga won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Estoril won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Braga score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Estoril score 0.9 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Braga games and 10 of Estoril games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Braga won 0 and Estoril won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Braga 1, Estoril 1.
6
The safest bet
Braga or Draw has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Braga vs Estoril: Braga are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Braga host Estoril in the Primeira Liga on Mon 14 Sept, 19:45 at Estádio Municipal de Braga. Our prediction for Braga vs Estoril is Braga to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Braga or Draw at 1.18.

Braga form

Braga have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Estoril form

Estoril have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Braga won 0, Estoril won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Braga 1, Estoril 1.

Our call

We expect Braga to score about 2.0 goals and Estoril about 0.9. That points to Braga to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Braga or Draw at 1.18. Our bold bet is Braga to win and Over 2.5 at 2.42.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Braga	Estoril
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	3
Draws	7	6
Losses	5	11
Goals scored	32	19
Goals conceded	27	33
Scored per game	1.6	0.9
Conceded per game	1.4	1.6
Home record	4W 5D 1L	1W 4D 5L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	25%	15%
Both teams scored	70%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Braga to win	63%	1.60	1.44	-10.0%
A Draw	22%	4.56	4.50	-1.3%
Estoril to win	15%	6.50	6.50	-0.0%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.81	1.67	-7.9%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	2.24	2.05	-8.3%
Braga -1.5	41%	2.45	2.20	-10.2%
Estoril +1.5	59%	1.69	1.57	-7.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.26
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.80
Over 3.5 goals	33%	3.02
Both teams to score	52%	1.93
Braga or Draw	85%	1.18
Estoril or Draw	37%	2.68
Braga to win and Over 2.5	41%	2.43
Estoril to win and Over 2.5	9%	11.27
Braga clean sheet	41%	2.45
Estoril clean sheet	13%	7.46

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.0%

1-110.4%

1-010.4%

2-19.9%

3-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Braga vs Estoril?

Our prediction for Braga vs Estoril is Braga to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Braga or Draw at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Braga vs Estoril?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 1-0. We expect Braga to score 2.0 goals and Estoril 0.9.

Will both teams score in Braga vs Estoril?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Braga last 20 games and 11 of Estoril last 20.

How are Braga playing?

How are Estoril playing?

What happened when Braga and Estoril last met?

It ended Braga 1, Estoril 1. In the last 2 meetings Braga won 0 and Estoril won 1.

What is the best bet for Braga vs Estoril?

Braga or Draw at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.