Predictions › United Kingdom › Brentford vs Chelsea

Premier LeagueFri 18 Sept, 20:00 United Kingdom time

Brentford vs Chelsea prediction

Gtech Community Stadium

BrentfordHome

1.56 : 1.51

expected goals

ChelseaAway

39%Brentford

25%Draw

36%Chelsea

Eagle value pickBrentford to win

7/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Brentford vs Chelsea is Brentford to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Brentford to win at 7/4.

Prediction: Brentford to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Brentford 1.6, Chelsea 1.5
Best bet: Brentford to win at 7/4
Both teams to score: 62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Brentford +0.5

61% chancePrice 4/71 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Brentford to win

39% chancePrice 7/4+5.9% value2 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Brentford to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 11/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Brentford 39%, the draw 25% and Chelsea 36%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Chelsea the favourite at 11/8, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Brentford took 9 points from their last 5 games and Chelsea took 12 from 5. Chelsea come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Brentford won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Chelsea won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Brentford score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Chelsea score 1.6 and let in 2.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Brentford games and 15 of Chelsea games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Brentford won 0 and Chelsea won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Chelsea 2, Brentford 0.
6
Where the value is
Brentford to win is priced at 7/4. Our fair price is 8/5, so the bookmaker pays about 5.9% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Brentford vs Chelsea: Brentford shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Brentford host Chelsea in the Premier League on Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 at Gtech Community Stadium. Our prediction for Brentford vs Chelsea is Brentford to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Brentford to win at 7/4.

Brentford form

Brentford have 6 wins, 10 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Chelsea form

Chelsea have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 42 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Brentford won 0, Chelsea won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Chelsea 2, Brentford 0.

Our call

We expect Brentford to score about 1.6 goals and Chelsea about 1.5. That points to Brentford to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Brentford +0.5 at 4/7. Our value bet is Brentford to win at 7/4. Our bold bet is Brentford to win and Over 2.5 at 11/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Brentford	Chelsea
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	6
Draws	10	3
Losses	4	11
Goals scored	31	31
Goals conceded	25	42
Scored per game	1.6	1.6
Conceded per game	1.3	2.1
Home record	2W 6D 2L	4W 2D 5L
Away record	4W 4D 2L	2W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	5%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Brentford to win	39%	8/5	7/4	+5.9%
A Draw	25%	3/1	11/4	-6.5%
Chelsea to win	36%	7/4	11/8	-14.9%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	4/6	4/7	-6.8%
Under 2.5 goals	40%	6/4	11/8	-5.8%
Brentford +0.5	61%	4/6	4/7	-5.8%
Chelsea -0.5	39%	6/4	5/4	-11.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	2/9
Over 2.5 goals	59%	4/6
Over 3.5 goals	37%	7/4
Both teams to score	62%	8/13
Brentford or Draw	64%	4/7
Chelsea or Draw	61%	8/13
Brentford to win and Over 2.5	26%	11/4
Chelsea to win and Over 2.5	25%	3/1
Brentford clean sheet	22%	7/2
Chelsea clean sheet	21%	4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%

2-18.5%

1-28.2%

1-06.6%

2-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Brentford vs Chelsea?

Our prediction for Brentford vs Chelsea is Brentford to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Brentford to win at 7/4.

What is the score prediction for Brentford vs Chelsea?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Brentford to score 1.6 goals and Chelsea 1.5.

Will both teams score in Brentford vs Chelsea?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Brentford last 20 games and 13 of Chelsea last 20.

How are Brentford playing?

How are Chelsea playing?

What happened when Brentford and Chelsea last met?

It ended Chelsea 2, Brentford 0. In the last 2 meetings Brentford won 0 and Chelsea won 1.

What is the best bet for Brentford vs Chelsea?

Brentford to win at 7/4, with a 39% chance. That price pays about 5.9% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.