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Predictions › United Kingdom › Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal
Premier LeagueSat 19 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal prediction

American Express Stadium

Brighton & Hove AlbionHome
1.08 : 1.55
expected goals
ArsenalAway
26%Brighton
27%Draw
47%Arsenal
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal is Arsenal to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Arsenal to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Brighton & Hove Albion 1.1, Arsenal 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1/31 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Brighton & Hove Albion to win
26% chancePrice 3/1+5.7% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Brighton & Hove Albion 26%, the draw 27% and Arsenal 47%. The bookmakers agree and make Arsenal the favourite at 4/5.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Brighton & Hove Albion took 4 points from their last 5 games and Arsenal took 13 from 5. Arsenal come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Brighton & Hove Albion won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Arsenal won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Brighton & Hove Albion score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Arsenal score 1.3 and let in 0.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Brighton & Hove Albion games and 6 of Arsenal games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Brighton & Hove Albion won 0 and Arsenal won 3 with 0 draws. The last one ended Brighton & Hove Albion 0, Arsenal 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal: Arsenal are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Brighton & Hove Albion host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 at American Express Stadium. Our prediction for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal is Arsenal to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Brighton & Hove Albion form

Brighton & Hove Albion have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Arsenal form

Arsenal have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 11 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Brighton & Hove Albion won 0, Arsenal won 3 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Brighton & Hove Albion 0, Arsenal 1.

Our call

We expect Brighton & Hove Albion to score about 1.1 goals and Arsenal about 1.6. That points to Arsenal to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Brighton & Hove Albion to win at 3/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BrightonArsenal
Games played2020
Wins813
Draws44
Losses83
Goals scored2926
Goals conceded2311
Scored per game1.41.3
Conceded per game1.10.6
Home record5W 3D 3L8W 1D 2L
Away record3W 1D 5L5W 3D 1L
Clean sheets30%60%
Both teams scored45%35%
Over 2.5 goals50%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Brighton & Hove Albion to win26%3/13/1+5.6%
A Draw27%11/411/4+2.0%
Arsenal to win47%11/104/5-14.7%
Over 2.5 goals51%Evens4/5-8.1%
Under 2.5 goals49%21/2010/11-4.5%
Brighton & Hove Albion +0.549%21/2010/11-5.3%
Arsenal -0.551%10/118/11-11.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1/3
Over 2.5 goals49%21/20
Over 3.5 goals27%11/4
Both teams to score53%10/11
Brighton & Hove Albion or Draw53%10/11
Arsenal or Draw74%1/3
Brighton & Hove Albion to win and Over 2.514%6/1
Arsenal to win and Over 2.528%5/2
Brighton & Hove Albion clean sheet21%7/2
Arsenal clean sheet34%2/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%
0-110.5%
1-29.3%
0-28.7%
0-07.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal?

Our prediction for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal is Arsenal to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Brighton & Hove Albion to score 1.1 goals and Arsenal 1.6.

Will both teams score in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Brighton & Hove Albion last 20 games and 7 of Arsenal last 20.

How are Brighton & Hove Albion playing?

Brighton & Hove Albion have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Arsenal playing?

Arsenal have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 11 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal last met?

It ended Brighton & Hove Albion 0, Arsenal 1. In the last 3 meetings Brighton & Hove Albion won 0 and Arsenal won 3.

What is the best bet for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.