Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Bills +5.5

71% chanceFair price -2481 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Houston Texans 47% and Buffalo Bills 53%. The bookmakers agree and make Buffalo Bills the favourite at -118.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Houston Texans won 1 of their last 5 and Buffalo Bills won 4 of their last 5. Buffalo Bills come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Houston Texans won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Buffalo Bills won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Houston Texans score 23.1 points a game and let in 18.0. Buffalo Bills score 27.8 and let in 21.0. Their recent games average 41.1 and 48.8 points in total, and the market line is 44.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 1 meeting, Houston Texans won 1 and Buffalo Bills won 0. The last one ended Houston Texans 23, Buffalo Bills 19.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Bills +5.5 has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Texans +3.5 wins if Texans win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.