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Predictions › United Kingdom › Burnley vs Derby County
ChampionshipSat 19 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Burnley vs Derby County prediction

Turf Moor

BurnleyHome
1.35 : 1.60
expected goals
Derby CountyAway
32%Burnley
26%Draw
43%Derby
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Burnley vs Derby County is Derby County to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Derby County to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Burnley 1.4, Derby County 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Derby County to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 5/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Burnley 32%, the draw 26% and Derby County 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Burnley took 3 points from their last 5 games and Derby County took 4 from 5. Derby County come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Burnley won 0 of their last 10 games at home. Derby County won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Burnley score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.9. Derby County score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Burnley games and 13 of Derby County games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Burnley vs Derby County: Derby County shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Burnley host Derby County in the Championship on Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 at Turf Moor. Our prediction for Burnley vs Derby County is Derby County to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Burnley form

Burnley have 0 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Derby County form

Derby County have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Burnley to score about 1.4 goals and Derby County about 1.6. That points to Derby County to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Derby County to win and Over 2.5 at 5/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BurnleyDerby
Games played2020
Wins08
Draws91
Losses1111
Goals scored1826
Goals conceded3831
Scored per game0.91.3
Conceded per game1.91.6
Home record0W 6D 4L5W 1D 4L
Away record0W 3D 7L3W 0D 7L
Clean sheets10%25%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1/4
Over 2.5 goals57%4/5
Over 3.5 goals34%15/8
Both teams to score60%4/6
Burnley or Draw57%8/11
Derby County or Draw68%4/9
Burnley to win and Over 2.521%4/1
Derby County to win and Over 2.528%5/2
Burnley clean sheet20%4/1
Derby County clean sheet26%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.0%
1-29.0%
0-17.7%
2-17.6%
0-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Burnley vs Derby County?

Our prediction for Burnley vs Derby County is Derby County to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Burnley vs Derby County?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Burnley to score 1.4 goals and Derby County 1.6.

Will both teams score in Burnley vs Derby County?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Burnley last 20 games and 11 of Derby County last 20.

How are Burnley playing?

Burnley have 0 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Derby County playing?

Derby County have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Burnley vs Derby County?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.