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Predictions › Primeira Liga › C.D. Nacional vs Alverca
Primeira LigaSat 12 Sept, 14:30 UTC

C.D. Nacional vs Alverca prediction

Estádio da Madeira

C.D. NacionalHome
1.43 : 1.14
expected goals
AlvercaAway
43%Nacional
28%Draw
30%Alverca
Eagle value pickC.D. Nacional to win
2.65

Quick answer

Our prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Alverca is C.D. Nacional to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is C.D. Nacional to win at 2.65.

Prediction
C.D. Nacional to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
C.D. Nacional 1.4, Alverca 1.1
Best bet
C.D. Nacional to win at 2.65
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
74% chanceFair price 1.351 unit
★

Eagle value pick

C.D. Nacional to win
43% chancePrice 2.65+13.2% value2 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.551 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives C.D. Nacional 43%, the draw 28% and Alverca 30%. The bookmakers agree and make C.D. Nacional the favourite at 2.65.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    C.D. Nacional took 4 points from their last 5 games and Alverca took 2 from 5. C.D. Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    C.D. Nacional won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Alverca won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    C.D. Nacional score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Alverca score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of C.D. Nacional games and 9 of Alverca games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, C.D. Nacional won 1 and Alverca won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended C.D. Nacional 1, Alverca 0.

  6. 6
    Where the value is

    C.D. Nacional to win is priced at 2.65. Our fair price is 2.34, so the bookmaker pays about 13.2% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

C.D. Nacional vs Alverca: C.D. Nacional shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

C.D. Nacional host Alverca in the Primeira Liga on Sat 12 Sept, 14:30 at Estádio da Madeira. Our prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Alverca is C.D. Nacional to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is C.D. Nacional to win at 2.65.

C.D. Nacional form

C.D. Nacional have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Alverca form

Alverca have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. C.D. Nacional won 1, Alverca won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished C.D. Nacional 1, Alverca 0.

Our call

We expect C.D. Nacional to score about 1.4 goals and Alverca about 1.1. That points to C.D. Nacional to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.35. Our value bet is C.D. Nacional to win at 2.65. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.55.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NacionalAlverca
Games played2020
Wins53
Draws39
Losses128
Goals scored1721
Goals conceded2529
Scored per game0.81.1
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record4W 1D 5L2W 6D 2L
Away record1W 2D 7L1W 3D 6L
Clean sheets30%5%
Both teams scored30%75%
Over 2.5 goals30%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
C.D. Nacional to win43%2.342.65+13.2%
A Draw28%3.603.25-9.8%
Alverca to win30%3.392.70-20.3%
Over 2.5 goals47%2.111.95-7.3%
Under 2.5 goals53%1.901.77-7.1%
C.D. Nacional -0.539%2.592.50-3.3%
Alverca +0.561%1.631.47-10.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.36
Over 2.5 goals47%2.11
Over 3.5 goals26%3.89
Both teams to score53%1.90
C.D. Nacional or Draw70%1.42
Alverca or Draw57%1.75
C.D. Nacional to win and Over 2.525%4.04
Alverca to win and Over 2.516%6.06
C.D. Nacional clean sheet32%3.14
Alverca clean sheet24%4.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
1-010.2%
2-18.9%
0-08.4%
0-18.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win C.D. Nacional vs Alverca?

Our prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Alverca is C.D. Nacional to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is C.D. Nacional to win at 2.65.

What is the score prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Alverca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect C.D. Nacional to score 1.4 goals and Alverca 1.1.

Will both teams score in C.D. Nacional vs Alverca?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of C.D. Nacional last 20 games and 15 of Alverca last 20.

How are C.D. Nacional playing?

C.D. Nacional have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Alverca playing?

Alverca have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when C.D. Nacional and Alverca last met?

It ended C.D. Nacional 1, Alverca 0. In the last 2 meetings C.D. Nacional won 1 and Alverca won 1.

What is the best bet for C.D. Nacional vs Alverca?

C.D. Nacional to win at 2.65, with a 43% chance. That price pays about 13.2% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.