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Predictions › Primeira Liga › C.D. Nacional vs FC Famalicao
Primeira LigaSat 19 Sept, 14:30 UTC

C.D. Nacional vs FC Famalicao prediction

Estádio da Madeira

C.D. NacionalHome
1.33 : 0.97
expected goals
FC FamalicaoAway
44%Nacional
29%Draw
27%FC Famalicao
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for C.D. Nacional vs FC Famalicao is C.D. Nacional to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
C.D. Nacional to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
C.D. Nacional 1.3, FC Famalicao 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.291 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives C.D. Nacional 44%, the draw 29% and FC Famalicao 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    C.D. Nacional took 4 points from their last 5 games and FC Famalicao took 3 from 5. C.D. Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    C.D. Nacional won 4 of their last 10 games at home. FC Famalicao won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    C.D. Nacional score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. FC Famalicao score 1.1 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of C.D. Nacional games and 8 of FC Famalicao games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, C.D. Nacional won 0 and FC Famalicao won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended FC Famalicao 1, C.D. Nacional 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

C.D. Nacional vs FC Famalicao: C.D. Nacional shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

C.D. Nacional host FC Famalicao in the Primeira Liga on Sat 19 Sept, 14:30 at Estádio da Madeira. Our prediction for C.D. Nacional vs FC Famalicao is C.D. Nacional to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

C.D. Nacional form

C.D. Nacional have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

FC Famalicao form

FC Famalicao have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. C.D. Nacional won 0, FC Famalicao won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished FC Famalicao 1, C.D. Nacional 0.

Our call

We expect C.D. Nacional to score about 1.3 goals and FC Famalicao about 1.0. That points to C.D. Nacional to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.29.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NacionalFC Famalicao
Games played2020
Wins57
Draws39
Losses124
Goals scored1722
Goals conceded2521
Scored per game0.81.1
Conceded per game1.31.1
Home record4W 1D 5L5W 3D 1L
Away record1W 2D 7L2W 6D 3L
Clean sheets30%40%
Both teams scored30%45%
Over 2.5 goals30%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.48
Over 2.5 goals40%2.49
Over 3.5 goals20%5.02
Both teams to score46%2.16
C.D. Nacional or Draw74%1.36
FC Famalicao or Draw56%1.79
C.D. Nacional to win and Over 2.523%4.42
FC Famalicao to win and Over 2.513%7.82
C.D. Nacional clean sheet38%2.63
FC Famalicao clean sheet27%3.76

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%
1-012.6%
0-010.9%
0-19.0%
2-08.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win C.D. Nacional vs FC Famalicao?

Our prediction for C.D. Nacional vs FC Famalicao is C.D. Nacional to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for C.D. Nacional vs FC Famalicao?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect C.D. Nacional to score 1.3 goals and FC Famalicao 1.0.

Will both teams score in C.D. Nacional vs FC Famalicao?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of C.D. Nacional last 20 games and 9 of FC Famalicao last 20.

How are C.D. Nacional playing?

C.D. Nacional have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

How are FC Famalicao playing?

FC Famalicao have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, D, newest first.

What happened when C.D. Nacional and FC Famalicao last met?

It ended FC Famalicao 1, C.D. Nacional 0. In the last 2 meetings C.D. Nacional won 0 and FC Famalicao won 2.

What is the best bet for C.D. Nacional vs FC Famalicao?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.