Cal Poly Mustangs vs San José State Spartans prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

San José St -10.5

73% chanceFair price -2761 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives San José State Spartans 91% and Cal Poly Mustangs 9%. The bookmakers agree and make San José State Spartans the favourite at -1639.

2. 2
   Recent form

   San José State Spartans won 1 of their last 5 and Cal Poly Mustangs won 1 of their last 1. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Scoring

   San José State Spartans score 24.1 points a game and let in 33.3. Cal Poly Mustangs score 32.0 and let in 24.0. Their recent games average 57.3 and 56.0 points in total, and the market line is 56.5.

4. 4
   The safest bet

   San José St -10.5 has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. San José St +3.5 wins if San José St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.