Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Panthers +8.5

73% chanceFair price -2761 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Panthers +1.5

54% chancePrice -110+3.6% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Atlanta Falcons 52% and Carolina Panthers 48%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlanta Falcons the favourite at -125.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Atlanta Falcons won 4 of their last 5 and Carolina Panthers won 3 of their last 5. Atlanta Falcons come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Atlanta Falcons won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Carolina Panthers won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Atlanta Falcons score 20.6 points a game and let in 22.3. Carolina Panthers score 20.4 and let in 22.5. Their recent games average 42.8 and 42.9 points in total, and the market line is 42.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 2 meetings, Atlanta Falcons won 0 and Carolina Panthers won 2. The last one ended Atlanta Falcons 27, Carolina Panthers 30.

6. 6
   Where the value is

   Panthers +1.5 is priced at -110. Our fair price is -119, so the bookmaker pays about 3.6% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Falcons +3.5 wins if Falcons win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.