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Predictions › Primeira Liga › Casa Pia vs FC Porto
Primeira LigaSat 12 Sept, 17:00 UTC

Casa Pia vs FC Porto prediction

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Casa PiaHome
0.64 : 2.31
expected goals
FC PortoAway
8%Casa Pia
17%Draw
75%FC Porto
Eagle safe pickFC Porto to win
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs FC Porto is FC Porto to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is FC Porto to win at 1.26.

Prediction
FC Porto to win
Chance
75%
Most likely score
0-2
Expected goals
Casa Pia 0.6, FC Porto 2.3
Best bet
FC Porto to win at 1.26
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

FC Porto to win
75% chancePrice 1.261 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Porto to win and both score
27% chanceFair price 3.641 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Casa Pia 8%, the draw 17% and FC Porto 75%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Porto the favourite at 1.26.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Casa Pia took 1 point from their last 5 games and FC Porto took 12 from 5. FC Porto come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Casa Pia won 2 of their last 10 games at home. FC Porto won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Casa Pia score 0.6 goals a game and let in 1.5. FC Porto score 1.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Casa Pia games and 10 of FC Porto games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Casa Pia won 1 and FC Porto won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Casa Pia 2, FC Porto 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    FC Porto to win has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Casa Pia vs FC Porto: FC Porto are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Casa Pia host FC Porto in the Primeira Liga on Sat 12 Sept, 17:00 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Our prediction for Casa Pia vs FC Porto is FC Porto to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is FC Porto to win at 1.26.

Casa Pia form

Casa Pia have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 11 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, L, newest first.

FC Porto form

FC Porto have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Casa Pia won 1, FC Porto won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Casa Pia 2, FC Porto 1.

Our call

We expect Casa Pia to score about 0.6 goals and FC Porto about 2.3. That points to FC Porto to win, with 0-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is FC Porto to win at 1.26. Our bold bet is FC Porto to win and both score at 3.64.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Casa PiaFC Porto
Games played2020
Wins314
Draws73
Losses103
Goals scored1135
Goals conceded3016
Scored per game0.61.8
Conceded per game1.50.8
Home record2W 4D 4L8W 2D 1L
Away record1W 3D 6L6W 1D 2L
Clean sheets25%45%
Both teams scored35%45%
Over 2.5 goals30%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Casa Pia to win8%12.3410.50-14.9%
A Draw17%5.795.75-0.7%
FC Porto to win75%1.341.26-5.8%
Over 2.5 goals55%1.821.71-5.6%
Under 2.5 goals45%2.222.05-7.9%
Casa Pia +1.548%2.091.95-6.7%
FC Porto -1.552%1.921.77-7.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals56%1.77
Over 3.5 goals34%2.94
Both teams to score43%2.33
Casa Pia or Draw25%3.94
FC Porto or Draw92%1.09
Casa Pia to win and Over 2.54%24.10
FC Porto to win and Over 2.549%2.04
Casa Pia clean sheet10%10.05
FC Porto clean sheet53%1.89

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-214.0%
0-111.7%
0-310.8%
1-28.9%
1-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

Our prediction for Casa Pia vs FC Porto is FC Porto to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 0-2. Our best bet is FC Porto to win at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

0-2 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-3. We expect Casa Pia to score 0.6 goals and FC Porto 2.3.

Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Casa Pia last 20 games and 9 of FC Porto last 20.

How are Casa Pia playing?

Casa Pia have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 11 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are FC Porto playing?

FC Porto have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Casa Pia and FC Porto last met?

It ended Casa Pia 2, FC Porto 1. In the last 1 meeting Casa Pia won 1 and FC Porto won 0.

What is the best bet for Casa Pia vs FC Porto?

FC Porto to win at 1.26, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.