Predictions › Brasileirao › Chapecoense vs Internacional

BrasileiraoSat 12 Sept, 20:00 UTC

Chapecoense vs Internacional prediction

Arena Condá

ChapecoenseHome

1.32 : 1.51

expected goals

InternacionalAway

32%Chapecoense

26%Draw

41%Internacional

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Internacional is Internacional to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Internacional to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.3, Internacional 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Chapecoense to win

32% chancePrice 3.15+2.2% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Chapecoense 32%, the draw 26% and Internacional 41%. The bookmakers agree and make Internacional the favourite at 2.25.
2
Recent form
Chapecoense took 7 points from their last 5 games and Internacional took 3 from 5. Chapecoense come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Chapecoense won 1 of their last 9 games at home. Internacional won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Chapecoense score 0.9 goals a game and let in 2.0. Internacional score 1.3 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Chapecoense games and 9 of Internacional games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Chapecoense won 0 and Internacional won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Internacional 2, Chapecoense 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Chapecoense vs Internacional: Internacional shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Chapecoense host Internacional in the Brasileirao on Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 at Arena Condá. Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Internacional is Internacional to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Chapecoense form

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Internacional form

Internacional have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Chapecoense won 0, Internacional won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Internacional 2, Chapecoense 0.

Our call

We expect Chapecoense to score about 1.3 goals and Internacional about 1.5. That points to Internacional to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Chapecoense to win at 3.15.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Chapecoense	Internacional
Games played	20	20
Wins	2	5
Draws	5	8
Losses	13	7
Goals scored	18	25
Goals conceded	41	26
Scored per game	0.9	1.3
Conceded per game	2.0	1.3
Home record	1W 3D 5L	3W 5D 3L
Away record	1W 2D 8L	2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Chapecoense to win	32%	3.08	3.15	+2.2%
A Draw	26%	3.79	3.40	-10.3%
Internacional to win	41%	2.43	2.25	-7.4%
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.83	-5.0%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	2.08	1.91	-8.1%
Chapecoense +0.5	58%	1.74	1.63	-6.5%
Internacional -0.5	42%	2.35	2.15	-8.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.86
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.17
Both teams to score	58%	1.73
Chapecoense or Draw	59%	1.70
Internacional or Draw	68%	1.48
Chapecoense to win and Over 2.5	20%	4.94
Internacional to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.81
Chapecoense clean sheet	22%	4.54
Internacional clean sheet	27%	3.74

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%

1-28.9%

0-18.2%

2-17.8%

1-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Chapecoense vs Internacional?

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs Internacional is Internacional to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Chapecoense vs Internacional?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Chapecoense to score 1.3 goals and Internacional 1.5.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Internacional?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Chapecoense last 20 games and 12 of Internacional last 20.

How are Chapecoense playing?

How are Internacional playing?

What happened when Chapecoense and Internacional last met?

It ended Internacional 2, Chapecoense 0. In the last 1 meeting Chapecoense won 0 and Internacional won 1.

What is the best bet for Chapecoense vs Internacional?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.