Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Reds +3.5

72% chanceFair price -2551 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Reds to win

39% chanceFair price +1561 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Cincinnati Reds 39% and Chicago Cubs 61%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Cincinnati Reds won 2 of their last 5 and Chicago Cubs won 1 of their last 5. Cincinnati Reds come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Cincinnati Reds won 5 of their last 8 games at home. Chicago Cubs won 4 of their last 12 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Cincinnati Reds score 5.1 runs a game and let in 6.8. Chicago Cubs score 6.8 and let in 4.9. Their recent games average 11.8 and 11.7 runs in total.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 5 meetings, Cincinnati Reds won 2 and Chicago Cubs won 3. The last one ended Chicago Cubs 5, Cincinnati Reds 7.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Reds +3.5 has a 72% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Reds +3.5 wins if Reds win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.